What is the future of employment?
This is a question being asked in many circles. This is due to the explosion of artificial intelligence, especially with the recent introduction of chatbots. Over the past year, many have theorized that knowledge workers are now at risk of losing their jobs. This is a likely outcome based upon how quickly things are developing.
In the last 13 months, we saw the introduction of ChatGPT by OpenAI. This was followed up by most major technology companies coming out with their own version. Of course, not to be outdone, OpenAI produced updates that moved its platform further ahead.
While this is a subject of great debate, I am in the camp that, due to the pace of advancement along with the fact that it is software presenting the risk, we are going to see massive job disruption. In short, there will be job loss exceeding the pace of job creation due to the opening of new markets.
Here is where people are trying to come up with solutions. There are unions contracting for protection against AI. We have people proposing universal basic income (UBI). Some are claiming that taxes on robots is necessary.
Whatever the idea, it is something that is going to fall short. Therefore, we have to look at the market and see what it is telling us.
People are not really concerned about jobs. This is a bit misleading. Most individuals despise their jobs as it is drudgery. However, they do like the money that results, allowing for people to sustain themselves.
Hence, the question is not one of job protection as much as sustenance. How do people sustain themselves in a world where labor income is eliminated on a massive scale?
This is the crux of the problem. It is going to affect the working class the most, as technology always does. Unlike past episodes), the next wave, in my view, will come from the white collar sector. Blue collar jobs are actually more difficult to automate out when we move outside manufacturing.
Here is where we can see the pace of the disruption accelerating. Software can move much faster than machinery. A simple update can have profound effects on the ability of the software. With each generation, we are seeing major steps forward.
Basically, the tasks that humans can do better than machines in the white collar environment is diminishing.
This presents a very straightforward dilemma.
We have two curves that summarize exactly what happens.
As technology advances, total productivity goes up. This is true whether we look at things from a broad perspective or within an individual job. When software advances, it tends to make an individual more productive.
With a few generation of software updates, we see productivity exploding. This results in a hyperbolic curve.
It looks like this:
You will notice it looks similar to what we see the The World in Data pertaining to global GDP.
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The massive advances in technology over the last 200 years have sent productivity through the roof.
Our problem comes from the fact that wages tend to be parabolic. This curve is shows as so:
Why is this the case?
The reason is rather simple. As the technology advances. productivity for the individual follows the first path. This results in greater revenues (and profits), meaning, in most instances, pay increases. It is a process that repeats itself as long as the human capabilities exceed the software.
However, the situation flips as the software is able to handle more tasks associated with the job. Over time, this makes the employee less valuable as automation took over. This results in loss of income since jobs are eliminated.
There are many examples of where this played out. Think of receptionists who answered the phones while routing them for a company or physical traders at exchanges. Both those positions are basically gone.
Unfortunately, with the pace of software advancement, this is likely to keep growing.
This is a bit outside the scope of this article but people are wondering what jobs are safe.
The answer to this lies in regulation. Those jobs that are tied to industries that are heavily regulated will be safer for longer.
If we want to take a look at those at risk, start with those which are unregulated. Content creation related jobs are seriously threatened. Nothing is protecting them against new AI driven companies forming and producing content. Since there is little threat to the public, i.e. a bad film is not going to physical harm or kill anyone, the technology can advance.
We get a different perspective with medical or legal. Even if the software is superior, society is not going to take the risk of implementing it immediately. A robotic surgeon will require years of testing, data, and study before it is approved for widespread use.
Now that we have the backdrop of what could potentially happen, what is the solution? We are back to the major question, how do most people sustain themselves when labor income drops?
Fortunately, Web3 is providing the solution.
Looking at the curves, we know total productivity will go hyperbolic. This means value generation is on the path of skyrocketing. It is something that should make everyone in the Web3 world very happy.
It does open the door for capital income, something that investors, especially venture capital companies, have long benefitted from. However, we know, globally, this excludes most of the population.
Thus, we have to shift our thinking to realize the solution.
Under this framework, the answer is rather clear:
We replace labor income with that from staking. This is the Web3 solution to a problem the world is wrestling with. With tokenization, new avenues of income generation are presented. The existing system doesn't know how to deal with this since it does not fit into the typical model. Staking can be a form of investing yet it also can be labor related.
So where does it fit?
To us, it matters none. The clarity of the existing system is something few of us are concerned about. This is addressing an area of issue within that system.
Obviously, we use the word "employer" to provide a point of reference people can understand. We know this is not a traditional employer-employee situation. In fact, it is operating in a completely new realm.
Whatever terminology is used, the discussion is clear: can income derived from staking be a replacement for the loss in labor income, resulting in a new economic model?
Here is where I see things heads. Between base layer networks and the platforms built on top of them, it is viable for people to start thinking in this direction. What kind of return can be generated from ones digital activity? By "digital" we basically mean online and it is a question few are asking.
Over the next 12 months, the Hive network is going to receive a couple enhancements that will make this a potentiality for a large number of people. With the ability to tokenize communities, the basis of the monetary system completely changes. This, naturally, has enormous economic impact.
Since we are now dealing with a hybrid income system, one where payouts are received for actions taken (a form of time for money) yet appreciation is also possible, we are now moving from employee to owner.
As we can guess, the ramifications can be huge.
Technology is going to disrupt a lot of industry. While many are looking towards governments or some other entity to provide the solution, it seems technology is also offering the answer.
In a world of networks, staking might be the major income source of the future for the masses.
