In this article we are going to explore something that is happening rather quickly, unbeknownst to most people.
What we are facing is a post-labor world. Here is a concept that the majority of people sweep under the rug, believing that we are simply going to keep creating more jobs.
Unfortunately, it appears that a post-labor world could be potentially closer than we think.
Before getting started, we have to define what that is.
A post-labor world is a time when the majority of the economy is not based upon human labor. Because of advancements in automation, the largest percentage of GDP is generated via machines.
Another point that we have to consider is the fact that this is the potential timeline based upon technology. There are other factors to consider such as regulation, governments, and the actual manufacturing/construction process. That said, this will serve as a way to look at the situation and see how quickly things are changing.
How fast is artificial intelligence moving? This is hard to say exactly but there are people are are trying to calculate it.
According to research done back in 2019, Stamford University concluded:
Post-2012, compute has been doubling every 3.4 months.
This means that, over 5 years, we will see a percent increase of over 13 million AI compute.
We acknowledge this is a rather dated study. However, they did look at the trend over a period of around 6 years. Even if we are dealing with something that is a bit slower, reducing the increase by an order of magnitude or two, we still can expect huge jumps.
Is it any wonder that things such as chat bots are starting to amaze?
Of course, we also have something similar happening in robotics. The advancements there are stellar, albeit at a much slower pace. Looking at the work Tesla is doing with Optimus is just one example of how rapidly things are changing.
Automation is the future.
We saw this taking place over the last 40 years. If we look in a factory that produced automobiles, it employed 30K people running 3 shifts per day. Today, that factory might employ 1/3 the total people while having double the output.
Both manufacturing and agriculture have seen production increase over the last half century yet the number of people employed in those industries has declined.
This is what automation does.
We are about to see that put on steroids. The result will be the potential for a post-labor world within 5 years. Much of what is handled by humans today will be done by machines. This is simply the pace I estimate things are advancing.
Does that mean we have 5 years left of jobs? The answer is no.
Even if we could replace 1 billion people with 300 million robots, it will take a long time to produce that many. Achieving a milestone of 1 million robots in a year from a production facility will be a grand achievement. It also will not dent the labor force.
Another think to keep in mind is this will not be spread evenly. If we look at smartphone adoption, it did not hit the entire world the same. Some countries were far ahead of others.
This is why we are dealing with the potential. The technology could be there but other factors will not be.
That said, it is time to start thinking about this. It is safe to say that, in 10 years, these numbers, if accurate, will be dwarfed.
We often say how Hive is changing lives.
This might become more evident as time goes by. If the advancement is automation is accelerating, people are going to have to earn in other ways. Naturally, many will turn to government for a solution. The problem is they will be light years behind the problem and end up doing too little. It is the track record for politicians.
The net result is most are going to be on their own. While the initial phases might be barely noticeable, acceleration means it eventually will not be missed. By that time, it is game over. The trend is already cemented in place.
In future articles we will cover artificial intelligence and DAOs. For now, we have to consider the many opportunities that are emerging on Hive for one to earn. Since we are dealing with different incentivization and value capture structures, this could be a way out for many people.
The advantage Hive has is the distribution model that it utilizes. This is still a rarity within the cryptocurrency realm. It is also why we see impacts in some developing nations already. Those with a low barrier can be affected by a dollar or two a day. Hive can offer this.
For those who present an utopian view of a post-labor world, we have to remember that, even if it does occur, there is a lot of pain as disruption occurs. The Luddites are the poster children for the anti-technology sentiment. Yet, we must point out they were right: things did not end well for them.
Web 3.0 is much more than just tokenization. It is disruptive and based upon many technological advancements. This cannot be stopped any more than social media or the Industrial Revolution could be. It will also redesign society.
The above stats likely will equate to knowledge workers. This is where the initial carnage will come from. Software is progressing at a phenomenal rate. While many profess it will be used to enhance the work people are doing, the likelihood is that, over time, companies will simply phase people out.
In fact, the majority of professions such as law and accounting could end up automated in 10-15 years. Then we look to fields such as education, architecture, and engineering. All of these will see massive changes.
Then we have the chase for autonomous vehicles. How many jobs are there globally tied to driving?
The point is that we are not as far away, from a technological standpoint, as many believe. Increases like this will keep happening. This is going to lead us to a post-labor economy which brings up a host of problems.
We will see a lot of discussion about it with a few solutions pursued. However, in the end, it will be insufficient.
Is Hive part of the solution? This could be. Over the next half decade, we need to scale both the capabilities along with the opportunities presented.
If this happens, we could be looking at something that has built in solutions that people will require.
