Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States has stood as the global superpower. It is an empire like any other, one that is destined to be knocked off its perch.
As the world evolves, nothing stays the same. While the U.S. dominance might be unchallenged, this are shifting around.
For this discussion, obviously the primary factors are military and economics. There are other things to consider such as education, demographics, and financial system. However, that allfeeds into the first two.
So let us break it down and see how things could unfold.
When it comes to security, the United States will be the dominant force in writing security policy. Here is one area where it has a huge lead.
To be a superpower means more than just having a large number of soldiers or battleships. In this era, technology is a huge component. Having one of the most powerful technology sectors in the world is going to aid the US in this regard.
That means anyone who is threatened will buddy up to the United States. It is a situation we see playing out in Southeast Asia. The U.S. does have influence there because of the security threat. The same holds true in Europe. As much as the Europeans bitch about the Americans, when someone like Putin steps up, they all run to the U.S. led NATO.
Of course, as they say, it is hard to have a military alliance if you do not have a military.
This is a factor we can consider going forward.
Globalization is changing. We see many countries, the U.S. in particular, stepping away. This means the ability to directly influence the global economy is waning.
We are already seeing fractions arising. The Eurozone is still a strong economic power. Obviously, we have the Pacific region. For its part, the United States is being enhanced by the potential of Mexico, forming a North America economic center.
In this area, we are going to see regional economic centers. Other countries are going to decide where they lean. Some of this might be tied to the aforementioned security as is the case with Japan. There are going to be, however, other factors.
The bottom line is we are not going to see a single economic superpower. Countries might be strong but they will not dominate globally. The ability to influence diminishes when other nations when their economies are not dependent upon you. This is what the United States is looking at.
We can say, for the moment, it is not taking it well. Nevertheless, it will have to adjust.
The final superpower is digital. This seems odd so what do we mean?
When we look at the digital world, there is really no geographic basis. Even though major corporations have their headquarters in a particular country, they are global. Also, we see the user bases eclipse the populations of most nations.
Companies like Facebook and Google spread across the world. The same is true for Apple and Microsoft. We see different areas trying to grasp with these entities and figure out how to deal with them. The question is who has more power?
In my view, there is little doubt this is the path we are heading down. While security might still be in the hands of governments, at least in the near (to medium) timeframe, everything else is up for grabs.
Economics are still going to have a degree of geography tied to them simply due to the fact things have to be made. Even if we build a house in the metaverse, unless there is physical shelter, people are in trouble. The same is true for food.
That said, we know the line between the digital and physical world is blurring. The former is expanding its reach. That means the potential for the existing companies to gain even more power is a real threat.
Amazon is an example of this as it expands into different industries and markets.
This brings us to the major question. What will the future look like in terms of the digital superpower?
Are we going to be looking at a world where a small handful of mega-technology companies control everything? If we head down this path, that is certainly the case.
It is why the emergence of Web3 is crucial. Screwing this up could have profound ramifications on the future of humanity. Tyranny might not come from dictators heading up governments. Instead, it might take that form in CEOs and board of directors.
Does a world run by Mark Zuckerberg sound appealing to you? Is it one that we think would be built upon the tenet of freedom?
I think most will agree with the answers on that.
Technology is advancing at an unbelievable pace. There is no reason to think any of it will slow down. This means that we are looking at digital superpowers emerging. After all, when you have a couple billion users, the basis is there to exert enormous influence. This could rival, if it doesn't already, government power.
As you can see, the heart of this debate is about a great deal more than having your account closed by YouTube. We are actually discussing the design for the future of the next superpower. Who is going to be in control?
Web3 is infected with the "green candle" syndrome. Most who are involved are simply looking at building an asset that can skyrocket in price. Few care about the implications of the future. Of course, we have Wall Street moving in, with regulators aiding them, to take over.
All of this feeds into the idea of centralization. While the banks are powerful, they will be subservient to the technology companies. This is the new power center that is emerging. For now, they will appease the regulators, providing the basis that government still have the power.
I do not believe this will be the case in a decade. These networks will be the central premise in the lives of most people. The only question is which networks?
This will tell us who is in control.
Decentralization offers us the opportunity to ensure that person doesn't exist. Of course, this cannot be the case if we are building pseudo-decentralization. Talking about it while having centralized entities running the show only leads us down the same path. After all, at some point, the centralized entity could be acquired.
This is how the big get bigger.
Web3, properly constructed, is the solution. A foundation built upon decentralization means we can move away from these behemoths that control everything. While they will not disappear, there will be a counter to their influence.
This is the crossroads we find ourselves. Digital is going to be the next great superpower. It is up to us to decide what that will look like.
Will it be a siloed system with a few companies running everything. If so, that is not much different than what we saw the last few centuries.
