The cat is out of the bag on this one.
However, we cannot presume the entire world is going to follow the same path. Tyranny is appearing in many corners of the globe. Actually, let me rephrase that: tyranny is showing up everywhere.
It is only a matter of how it is being rolled out.
Within the crypto world, we see how there is a lot taking place. Last year was one where stablecoins got a major boost. In fact, if there was a story for the year, it was that. Due to the legislation passed in the United States, we saw then start the process of becoming mainstream.
My forecast is the major banks will enter during 2026. This will cause a massive explosion.
That said, not everyone is in agreement. Here is where the difference viewpoints start to take hold.
Due to the advancement of stablecoins, we heard little about central bank digital currencies (CBDC). These are not dead.
In this article I take a look at what India is doing.
CBDCs were the rage by governments a couple years ago. I guess this was noteworthy because the Biden Administration was leaning in that direction. Nothing really came of it since Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, was against them.
This all changed with the re-entry of the Trump Administration. He is against CBDCs, pushing the banning of them. This was coupled with many states disallowing them.
Of course, while the US is the reserve currency, it is not the only game in town. The EU is still moving towards bringing a CBDC out. Now, we get word that India is not sold on stablecoins and believes the alternative is the answer.
While stablecoins have gained more than $100 billion in 2025 to peak at $307 billion according to DefiLlama, India is taking the opposite direction. The Indian central bank (RBI) states that only a sovereign digital currency guarantees monetary stability. In a global landscape where CBDCs struggle to impose themselves, New Delhi erects the e-rupee as a bulwark against the privatization of money.
In my estimation, this is doomed to fail.
Over the years, I have watched the Indians closely regarding their currency. At the major BRICS meeting, where there is a currency discussed, the Indian finance minister usually comes out with a statement how the goal is not a BRICS currency but, rather, to make the Rupee an international currency.
The first time I remember hearing this was around 2010. We are now roughly a decade and a half past that, and still nothing.
In its financial stability report published at the end of December 2025, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) takes a clear stance: CBDCs (central bank digital currencies) should be favored over stablecoins issued by private actors.
The institution considers CBDCs as the foundation for the future national and international monetary system. According to the report, the sovereign digital currency alone can guarantee “the uniqueness of currency and the integrity of the financial system”. It must remain “the ultimate settlement asset” and serve “as an anchor for confidence in the currency”.
We heard similar thoughts proposed over the years. This is proving itself false but it doesn't prevent bankers, economists, and bureaucrats from holding onto the idea.
I do not know if these people are clueless or simply trying to remain relevant. While it would seem that smart people would fall into the latter, it seems there is often a blind spot when it comes to currency.
Another view I have is that we are going to see the Milkshake Theory play out. This it the idea that the US dollar is going to extract value from all other currencies, which have more volatility. This is due to the fact that people will opt for an alternative when given a choice.
The challenge is, historically, most of the world was locked into its native currency. Whatever country one was in equated to the currency used. The entire banking system was built around this.
With stablecoins, anyone with a digital wallet can hold any currency he or she wants. Naturally, this is a token representing something, as in the case of USDT or USDC. Both offer people access to dollar denomination while not holding the original dollars.
It is at this point that network effects enter. This is also the basis for the discussion regarding the future of payment tokens.
A CBDC will fail because it is still national. We are seeing the private tokens going global. The aforementioned stablecoins are used by people all over the world. That provides a great deal more stability than the policy of a central bank. Here is where the "clueless" part of the discussion enters.
Bankers, especially those at the central bank, believe in their own power. They truly think they are able to issue policy and pull the levers of the economy. Alan Greenspan was credited with having this ability, something that ended up being proven wrong.
Anyone who issues a CBDC will be fighting a global battle at the national level. That will ultimately fail since the reach simply isn't large enough.
At this point, one could say that, outside the USD, any other denominated stablecoin might only have niche potential.
Networks effects are tough to overcome and the USD has them. A CBDC from India is going to do nothing to stop this.
