How fast is cryptocurrency growing?
This is a very difficult question to answer. It is one, however, with profound implications upon how society forms around the next wave of technology. We are seeing some powerful things roll out. This naturally brings up many questions of control and ownership.
These are topics we regularly cover. Web 3.0 offers enormous potential. So far, a great deal of the crypto market is being hijacked by Wall Street. TradFi is taking over, something that is counter to the vision of Satoshi.
How will this all play out? It is going to depend upon the decisions that individuals make. For the moment, we will simply try to figure out adoption rates to see how things are progressing.
Even the idea of a crypto user is difficult to monitor. What does that mean?
It appears the default is simply to look at wallets. This can be a bit misleading since many have more than one wallet. Nevertheless, like IP addresses, it does provide a decent estimate to what is taking place.
Many feel crypto ebbs and flows based upon the markets. So far, this proved to be accurate. During bull runs, people flock back, acting like they never left. Of course, when the bear returns, these people are not to be found.
To me, this is the immaturity of the industry. The transformation will take place when people utilize the applications relating to Web 3.0. Thus, crypto is not an asset as much as an integrated part of utility of the specific application or game.
It is no different than the Internet, another technology that is often compared to cryptocurrency, at least with adoption (as we will see).
There was a time when people would "log on" to the Internet. That is not the case, as much, anymore. With phones, they are always online. It holds mostly true for our personal computers and laptops. As soon as we turn them on, connection is achieved.
I would see the future of cryptocurrency is the same. People will not be consciously choosing this, like a stock or bond. Instead, it will simply be a normal course of action.
Here is where the user base will jump. It will also allow us to see billions of users (and who knows how many wallets).
That said, let is try to get a handle on this.
The information provided comes from RealVision, Raoul Pal's company. This was from the slide stack provided in a webinar.
Here we see a tracking along with a comparison to Internet adoption.
As we can see, the historic path of adoption for crypto wallets far outpaces that of the Internet. Again, we have to keep in mind the same individual could have a number of wallets. Nevertheless, it does show the parallel.
Internet adoption was slower. This is not surprising since there was a lot of physical world activity which was required. The world of atoms saw a lot of laying of cable, something that slowed the process.
What is interesting about the first chart is we see, using the Internet growth rate of 43%, we will move from roughly 500 million to over 1 billion in 2025.
The same growth rate is used to project out to 2030.
Here we see the pathway to 4 billion users. Please keep in mind this is a log chart.
Again, when we compare it to the Internet, based upon the same yearly total from start, we see how much crypto outpaces.
The main difference is, in 2006, the Internet users reached 1 billion. Today, we have over 5 billion, a number that is growing every year.
For this reason, when we look at the future, having 4 billion of an estimate 7 billion online in 2030 using crypto is not an outrageous thought. This is especially true if we see Web 3.0 start to provide utility.
Over the last few years, we saw Wall Street diving into crypto. This is a double-edge sword but one that does have a positive side.
We see billions flowing into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. This is not crypto per se since we are basically dealing with Wall Street product. It does, however, provide people with exposure to it.
By this I am referring to the notion of crypto. If people own some units in a Bitcoin ETF, they are willing to make an investment in it. This is something that provides familiarity. This also enhances the publicity when the mainstream outlets mention it.
Does this instantly translate from a passive follower to someone who is going to set up wallets? Not likely.
What it does is to remove the mystery surrounding crypto. This was the same process that was required with the Internet. Those who pre-dated that has to learn how to use the Internet. It was techy and clunky at first.
Later generations simply used it.
I foresee crypto happening in a similar fashion. There is still a challenge when it comes to ease of use. However, as applications integrate things into their system that make it easy for people to custody their crypto, we will slide further up the adoption curve.
My guess is we see adoption go parabolic at some point. I cannot predict when that will happen although this will likely be tied to utility. The power of Web 3.0 will be realized when we no longer refer to things as such. It will simply be the Internet.
The point to all this is we are still in the early stages.
We are potentially looking at a 8x move from 2023-2030. Whether this forecast is accurate or not will be determined in time. What we can expect, however, is for the growth to continue.
One of the keys is going to be the removal of mystery. People tend to shy away from what they do not understand. Another is the push to make things much easier for people to use.
As this occurs, we could even see adoption rates increase at a greater rate than forecast here.
That said, 4 billion users, not wallets, seems fairly realistic by 2030.
