The past 12 months saw a great deal of advancement in the world of cryptocurrency and blockchain. Compared to where things stood back in January, it is a completely different world.
Just to highlight a few of the events that happened:
This year was certainly centered around DeFi. The platforms over on Ethereum absolutely exploded. This means that we are going to see greater activity in 2021 as more entities get involved.
Where does all this leave Hive?
Obviously, forecasting the future is very difficult. Few were able to predict that 2020 was going to be the year of DeFi. So what will be the major trend in the coming 12 months?
Fortunately, with Hive, it really does not matter. The first target is the smart contract capability. This is something that received a great deal of discussion over the past few months. There are teams working upon a decentralized smart contract system that makes token creation rather inexpensive.
This will completely change the course of Hive. Eventually, it will put it on par with the other blockchains in terms of functionality. Being able to create any type of contract will enable applications that mirror what exists on the likes of EOS and Ethereum.
Naturally, having the capability means little of nothing is happening. There are many blockchains that have terrific technical features but still have little taking place. After all, if Bitcoin attracted no outside attention, it would still by a sub $10 a token.
Just exiting Hivefest gives us an idea of where things can potentially be heading.
We saw the first tribe breakthrough with Leofinance. This community is now setting to tone for others to follow. Sometimes all that is needed is an example, a proof-of-concept if you will, to get others to buy in. How many others see the potential and are willing to put in the effort to replicate, at least to some degree, what Leofinance did? That is impossible to answer but we can see a different level of motivation as compared to 6 months ago.
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What is being proposed is a full-blown token-economic system designed to generate cash flow, well, forever. Hive is going to benefit since it is the paired token outside the platform that is being put together. If this platform can become the leader in decentralized video storage while also establishing the most liquid pool for the tokens tied to it, then Hive will stand to benefit in a large way. This use case for the token could lock up tens of millions of HIVE. Yet, instead of a burn, they actually produce greater value while eliminating them from circulation.
My guess is the new year will see the move towards utilization. The bull run, thus far, is isolated to a few tokens. Not everything is mooning in spite of the renewed attention cryptocurrency is receiving.
Unlike the last time, where all boats were lifted, it is a selection of those that appear viable which are receiving the boost. This will continue as the idea of Web 3.0 starts to take hold. Many might not associate things with that term but the premise is going to expand.
In other words, we will see that which is valued are those projects providing use cases. No longer is it enough to have a fancy white paper and the idea of totally revolutionizing a particular industry.
Instead, it is the "put up or shut up" moment. Those projects that have working applications that users are interested in will benefit from the flow of capital, both human and financial.
Perhaps we even see the "Netscape Moment" for cryptocurrency and blockchain.
Interoperability will continue to expand. Blockchains still operate in isolation of each other. This is not the path to mass adoption. The using public does not really care about tribalism or anything else that we discuss on a daily basis. Instead, they just want to do what they are interested in and have it working.
The Internet was born out of the idea that computer networks could be traversed without difficulty. Having applications that are tied to a single network does not make much sense in the era. Yet that is exactly the situation we are confronted with.
2021 will be the year this is overcome to a great degree.
Finally, it is time for marketplaces. There are hundreds of billions of dollars worth of cryptocurrency sitting in people's wallets. Most of that is speculative money. There is also more than a trillions dollars worth of applications and projects that are tied to cryptocurrency. These businesses generate real world revenues.
We still are at the point where the primary use case, spending of crypto, is still lagging. The industry was looking for the likes of Amazon and others to start accepting crypto. This is something that people are still waiting for.
Thus, it makes more sense to start the process from within. Stores, markets, and a host of other concepts will appear offering some of the basic goods and services that people need. It is time for the ultimate use case of crypto be established: paying for the goods and services that we need.
Here is the opportunity. It is important to remember that eCommerce was not dominated by the traditional retailers. They saw little reason to embrace the new medium called the Internet. Instead it was a group of start ups led by Amazon that created a radical shift in the entire industry.
For that reason, we will have to see the foundation for the next Amazon laid. It will likely start with a number of marketplaces, all vying to grow and get more users. Over time, a few will start to gain recognition and leave the others behind.
The idea of accessing what is hundreds of billions of dollars in capital should excite merchants. However, by providing this use case, we could see that number jump into the trillions.
As someone who makes a "home" on Hive, I can foresee a lot of this developing on here. While the results are not the same as on Ethereum in terms of the numbers, many of the basic concepts are already being formed on Hive. In the end, a 10x is still a 10x, regardless of where the starting point is.
Hive is large enough now that a move like that will have significant impact.
Thus, for fun, I will say that my ultimate Hive prediction is a 21X in the entire ecosystem for 2021.
I will leave it up to the readers to determine the metrics used to collaborate that forecast.
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