For the first time in a long time, I got to have a face to face meeting with a client for my business. This was the first since Covid was forced on us, almost four years ago. Crazy. And for this particular client, while we have been having remote sessions, this was the first time we actually met in person - again, quite strange. It was really nice.
I even got a hug,
The conversation was interesting too! As we talked about having children, business conditions, impacts of AI and the widening skills and experience gap between groups. For example, it is hard to predict exactly what kinds of impacts AI are going to have on employment generally, because it is going to depend on the groups. For instance, a recent report estimates that around 350,000 retail jobs will be lost in Australia to AI over the next three years, which is 25% of the industry. However, only about 80,000 jobs will be created to handle the changeover.
But, this never tells the full story either, because it is not a one to one shift. If there were 100 jobs lost in the retail sector, even if there were 100 jobs created in the tech sector, it doesn't mean the people who lost their jobs in retail can retrain for the new tech jobs created. If they could, they probably wouldn't be in retail.
Yes, some might be able to make the shift, but how many are able to reasonably transition from retail to a high-end knowledge worker position? With knowledge work automation becoming far more common, they have to be able to add value above base-level administration at the very least, but they will also be competing with people who have already been doing those base-level jobs and need to move up due to leaving their specialized positions.
Retraining is untenable for most.
However, there is also a growing gap in the education areas also, where there are still people who think that getting good grades leads to a good job. They don't. What the grades actually say to an employer is "this person is able to learn and retain some information" - that is about it. Like my client was saying, the vast majority of his knowledge skillset was built through his employment experience, not through school, and this is going to speak to a larger issue for the young and the newly unemployed.
Because they are technology users, not technology creators.
As I have said earlier, people keep talking about the young as "digital natives" as if that means that they are technical, but that isn't the case at all. For the most part, they are digital users, but don't understand what goes into the development of what they are using. They are akin to someone who can drive a car, not a mechanic. Their predecessors however grew up exploring the tech, which is why they were able to innovate it. For them, nothing came out of the box, they had to learn how it worked and then creatively manipulate it for alternate purposes. For instance, I had friends that were soldering motherboard components together and writing code so they could have a dual Pentium processor when we were fifteen or sixteen. How many people today would dare open up their phone or Playstation and fiddle around?
For the most part, the younger tech users are only comfortable at the interface level, not the development level. This means that their skillset is relatively easy to come by in the marketplace, and therefore, does not command a high salary. The well-paid positions will be those that are specialized in narrow areas that can't be automated, which leaves a large amount of people scrambling for something else to do to pay the bills.
What does that look like?
For a few, becoming content creators will be possible, but when there are hundreds of millions globally, who can compete? And then, what happens to advertising revenues when consumers are no longer able to pay?
It will consolidate.
Even though we focus on wealth, there are "gaps" forming in so many areas now, with education, health and social skill gaps. There are also widening creativity gaps, emotional gaps and resilience gaps too. The profile of the average human is changing rapidly and we are on average becoming less capable than a machine to deal with the complexities of our daily needs.
A lot of parents think that what their children will need in the future is able to be obtained through being a good screen user. But ultimately, if there will be something to do, it will come down to their ability to learn new process, think critically, and practically innovate creatively. The vast majority of the young haven't developed these abilities, and have instead relied on the tools to fake skill. The easier the tools get, the lower their ability becomes, and the less valuable it is in the marketplace.
And, just to close this off a little - it doesn't matter whether some people are highly skilled and will be employed, because they ill have to live in this society too. Parents talk about their kids present and future happiness, but a big part of our well being is outside of our direct control. Yes, I want my daughter to be able to have work available she finds meaningful, but I also want her to be able to walk down the street without the constant and present threat of violence and crime. This means that the general health of society factors into the wellbeing of individuals, and if we don't improve the outcomes for the majority, everyone will suffer.
Handouts don't work.
Some people seem to put their faith in a Universal Basic Income system, but unless it is attached to work performance, it is going to fail also. Spend some time in a community filled with long-term unemployed people taking social security, and you will see a glimpse into a workless future.
I think we want more for our community than that.
Because we want more for ourselves than that.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
