I don't know why I keep thinking that Hive is somehow going to explode and outpace ETH of BTC.

Yeah, I get it. I do the same, over and over. It will outpace, but it will be in peaks and deep troughs, and in between, there is a lot of other opportunity.

It needs to get over several dollars per Hive before I make my money back.

In comparison to alternative holds?