Hey mate. Long time!
I suspect that in time, the rewards pool will be increasingly closed off to both stabilise the infrastructure level and reward holders/investors as key parts of the network, with much of the reward value getting pushed to second-layer tokens. I also think that the inflation rate might even be changed in the future, so the 1% a year will happen sooner than 2035, but this is all conjecture.
At the moment though, I do think it is possible to get rewarded on Hive, but it isn't just through Hive itself. I think Leo is a good example of this, where quite a few took the opportunity to build in a way they couldn't on Hive alone. Splinterlands is another example of this.
Most of the Hive on exchange is still from the original mine as that accounts for over half the current supply. But, has it changed hands?
RE: Part 2: "Why Hive is probably broken" - View from an OG