lol. I think it depends on what is happening in the pool in general. Remember that downvotes mean that it gets redistributed to all other posts. That means that when a (especially a large) downvote goes on a post, the ones with very large payouts will go noticeably up. That is why all needs to be eventually sorted out so that the downvoting redirects to decent content.

This might interest you in regards to that circle.

https://staging.busy.org/@anomadsoul/ocdb-and-downvotes-or-a-newsteem-approach