I was having a look at the dominance of Bitcoin today and it reminded me of an old post where I said:
At the high point of BTC dominance on December 7th, the total market capitalization was around 425 billion dollars with BTC holding 65% of it and Alts holding 150 billion.
425 Billion. Today? $286,235,660,205
That means while Bitcoin has the same market share today as it did in December 2017, the entire crypto market is worth 1/3 less than it did at the same point. The price of Bitcoin on the 7th of December 2017 however was 16,000 dollars, almost 50% more than it is today.
So same dominance, 50% less value.
So the last time there was 66% dominance all other alts were worth 140 billion dollars.
Now with BTC 66% dominance all other alts were worth 94 billion dollars.
Around about 50% less value.
Then if we look at this next chart with the line I added:
The last time BTC had 66% dominance - it fell off a cliff.
It also fell off a cliff in April 2017 when alt season made a run taking Steem from 15 cents up to about 2.78 in about 8 weeks. Things can move fast in crypto, can't they?
It was at that point after BTC fell off the dominance cliff that Ethereum also came within about 7% of knocking BTC from the number one position with 32% of the entire valuation. When it comes to market share today, Ethereum has 8% - it has 1/4 of what it once had - must be dead.
Sell! Sell!!
You can see in this 4-day period here from December 30th 2017 to January 3rd 2018 where everyone on Steem put in a big effort and increased the quality of their posts by 3x to take the price from 2.62 - 8.30. If only people could maintain that kind of quality posting like they did over those days - we'd be fine. Steem went from a market cap of 650 million to 2 billion in 4 days.
Well done everyone - pat yourselves on the back.
Huge effort, well deserved.
Do you notice anything weird here?
Look at the difference in trading volume between the ATH on the 3rd of January where it was under 100 million and the 25th of January where it was almost 450 million for the day, which was 3 weeks from the ATH.
You might notice another pattern here that explains why the trading volume was so low on the ATH day in comparison. Here, let me make it easier for you by marking it.
See those peaks and the subsequent drop? They are 7 days apart. Yeah, they align with a 7-day powerdown period, which makes sense as excited as everyone was about the prices (especially SBD), they weren't expecting Steem to go through the roof with so much gusto, so they were less likely to have a powerdown running.
As I wrote in the post a few months ago:
I wonder how much market dominance Bitcoin can gather before the flow into the alts starts to reduce its dominance? It is only that 5% away from where it was last time but, that is not necessarily an indicator yet, it does seem that eventually there is a certain amount of inevitability surrounding it. As far as market cap goes, we are at mid-November, 3 weeks before the peak dominance of Bitcoin and 7 weeks away from the 830 billion peak of all coins where 66% was in non-bitcoin currencies.
We are no longer those "3 weeks away" from the peak dominance, we are actually a little bit over that peak. Does that mean hat we are 4 weeks away from a new ATH for all alts whewre BTC dropped to 33% dominance? No idea.
However, it does appear that the market is in a decision mode whether to push Bitcoin up or, support the inevitable drive into alts to stabilize investments. What is also interesting is that the trading volume for Bitcoin today is 50% higher than it was when it hit its ATH of 20,000. This means that 10 trades of a bitcoin each would have amounted to 200K at the ATH but today it needs to get traded 20x to reach the same amount - but it is getting traded 30x. That is a lot of BTC trading going on in comparison to 1.5 years ago.
What do all of these things mean in regard to what you should do? I have no idea but while I don't have any idea about the charts, dominance and what other people are or should do, I do find them interesting to look at to see what kinds of patterns are emerging, even if the patterns are in my imagination. It is also fun to see how fast something can change in crypto, with 2 months from 16 cents to 2.78 a 17x shift upward over 2 months, and how important people see the ATH which started from about that point and went to 8.30 in 4 days - a shift of 3x.
Well, that is my dodgy look at the past for today.
Good luck out there.
Taraz
[ a Steem original ]
Were there enough charts this time
@edicted? :P