I was hoping for some amazing birthday present luck, where the markets were all green, and HIVE was floating 100% up. But no. It is not that kind of birthday. Instead, it is just another day, with wife at work, kid at school, and me looking around at what I might be able to do in the near-term - since crypto is not cooperating to make me wealthy enough to retire.
I didn't get my candle wish it seems.
But that had nothing to do with crypto.
Humanity is entering a new phase of existence and it is one that we will either pull through better on the other side, or be completely wiped out as a species. The current America first policies that many are cheering in the US, look set to have "unforeseen" ramifications around the globe that more likely than not will lead to violent conflicts the like the world has never seen before. And that is saying something, considering how brutal our history is.
Yet, most people are not going to acknowledge it even when it happens, because we live in an instant gratification world that only looks short on the future. Just like how the lifecycle of consumer goods has shortened massively, we ourselves have been conditioned to shorten our own outlooks whilst at the same time be far less capable of predicting outcomes in the complexities we face. As a result,
We act now, think poorly later.
People are idiots.
You'd have to say that if someone kept making the same mistake over and over and over, right? But that is not quite the case here, because we are making the same mistakes over and over at increasing scale, with failure that will be inevitably larger than in the past due to our centralized economy and governance structures. So, no, we aren't idiots.
We are fucking idiots.
The other day in the sauna, we were talking about history a bit and how most people around the world don't have a direct experience of war. This is of course a good thing, but the only reason it has been that way is because of a whole range of treaties that meant that since World War 2, there has been a relatively long period of peace. Once those treaties collapse however and allies can no longer be trusted, the chance of war goes up considerably, especially considering the ever growing hunger for power and control over others, from those with the means to chase it.
The markets are opportunistic.
Nothing happens unless there is the belief that there is a buck to be made in it, and nothing will happen if there is no benefit to be made. This includes doing the right thing. Unless there is something to be gained in doing the right thing, it won't be done. And that is where it is now in terms of the current US government. And while again, many will cheer, what they will soon discover is that a lot of the things that they see as rights, will erode away because they are largely a cost. Once the government is only looking at what makes money for them, the majority of people are going to suffer one way or another.
Some will win big. Most will lose.
And this is going to happen globally, which means that there are going to be all kinds of disruptions, and many, many failures. What we can expect is that there will be an explosion in extremism of all kinds, because that is what happens when people feel they are suffering financially, or have been disenfranchised, disconnected, and have decreasing amounts of opportunity for a good life. And someone has to be to blame for the misery, and they will target who ever they deem that to be.
Violence ensues.
And then to escape the violence, people will turn to the government to do something, granting them more powers of control, giving them more resources to take on debt, expand their spending in ways that does nothing for society, but lines the pockets of their friends and families. The wealth transfer from poor to rich has been incredible over the last couple decades.
But we haven't seen anything yet.
The world is collapsing, like the death of a star burning its last fuel. The question is, will anything rise from the ashes, and if so, how many will survive? What people should realise though is that when a government puts its country first, that doesn't mean they put all of its people first. If anything, what will happen is a wholesale slaughter of anyone who is not seen as a value-adding member of society, and that means - people who are able to work and add monetary value to the government coffers. Once AI and automation really take hold, how many will that actually be?
Who will survive?
The minority are buying their place.
With the majority's money.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
