The Royals looked well on course for a playoff spot in last season's IPL before the wheels well and truly fell off in the later stages. Can they rediscover their form in IPL 2024 and see it through to the end?
There is no doubt that RR have some of the best individual talent in the IPL but weaknesses in their squad were exposed at times in IPL 2023 and an initial assessment suggests they haven't been able to fill those voids as we head into the new season.
As the stats below show, Rajasthan were excellent at the beginning of the innings last season. Jaiswal scored more powerplay runs (361 at a strike rate of 176) than any other player in IPL 2023, consistently setting the tone for the Royals. While Jos Buttler didn't live up to the very high standards he's set in previous tournaments, that opening combinations remained Rajasthan's trump card.
Of course when it failed, then the Royals more often that not found themselves in trouble!
Sanju Samson added 362 runs at a strike rate 153 but as has so often been the case throughout his career, he can look like a world beater with some of stroke play but the innings of real substance are still few and far between.
The Royals also struggled to find the right balance and personnel to their middle order. Devdutt Padikkal never really looked happy batting at number 4 but Rajasthan needed a left hander in there and he was the man tasked with the job. Alongside him, Riyan Parag once again struggled to transfer his domestic form into the IPL. It's taken him 54 matches to reach the 600 run mark in IPL cricket and he's scoring at a rate of 123. He was the top scorer in Syed Musthaq Ali trophy this season but is he really up to the standard required for top level franchise cricket?
At the back end of the innings, Shimron Hetmyer performed well again although not quite to the level he'd set in 2022. Dhruv Jurel who has had a whirlwind 12 months played some nice cameos at the death too.
One of the main problems for RR was establishing a balance to their side. Jason Holder had been brought in to provide just that but he managed just 12 runs in 8 innings while contributing only 4 expensive wickets with ball in hand.
All in all, it meant that the Royals continued to have a very long tail, a fact that no doubt placed a significant burden on the top 6 (more specifically the top 3) to get the job done.
With ball in hand, the loss of Prasidh Krishna just prior to the tournament certainly disrupted their plans and as the stats above show, while they were very economical in the powerplay, they generally lacked penetration with the new ball.
As seam options came and left the XI, the Royals regularly reverted to playing 3 frontline spinners in Ashwin, Chahal and Zampa. The tactic was effective to some extend and in certain conditions, although the lack of a 6th bowler did mean that Rajasthan were effectively throwing all their eggs into one basket with 12 overs of spin. Still Chahal in particular with 21 wickets at a strike rate of 15 was a key part of Rajasthan's early season success.
I say early season because 4 of RR's wins in IPL 2023 came in their first 5 games coinciding with their top order's best form of the tournament. Thereafter, it became a bit of a struggle and they finished the season with humiliating defeats at home to GT and RCB (both by 9 wickets) as well as a loss to bottom placed SRH.
Rajasthan completed a trade deal for Avesh Khan in the off-season with Devdutt Padikkal going in the other direction. Avesh had a poor 2023 season at LSG so RR will be hoping that he can rediscover the form of 2021-22 which catapulted him into the reckoning for the national team.
With the Royals generally hanging onto their key players from last season, it meant that they entered the auction without a massive pursue and they spent a good portion of what they did have on Rovman Powell who was the first name up for sale.
Thereafter they were fairly quiet until paying a large fee for Shubham Dubey, a stylish yet powerful left-hander very much in the Shivam Dube mold.
The Royals failed to bring in an all-rounder to add much needed balance to the side but then again, there weren't really any high quality options for them to bid for meaning that their starting XI is likely to face similar issues to those exposed last season.
Career T20 records v types of bowling and in phases of the game
The strengths and weakness of the this Royals side for IPL 2024 are very much the same as they were last season too.
You could make a strong argument that Jaiswal and Buttler are the best opening combination in the competition. Buttler's excellent stats have been delivered over a very long period of time while Jaiswal's rise to prominence has been incredible and culminated in him dominating England in the recent Test series.
The only concern that Rajasthan will have in that sense is the possibility of burn out for their young star as he moves from being a mainstay of India's batting line-up in multiple formats and tours straight into the helter-skelter of an IPL season.
Beyond that opening pair is where the problems start to develop. Sanju Samson will likely bat at 3 and will need to find the kind of consistency that has so often been lacking throughout his career. If Dhruv Jurel is set to be a regular player for the Royals this season then it feels as though it may be a good opportunity for Samson to give up his keeping duties and focus on batting as well as captaining the side.
Having ditched Padikkal the big question is who bats at 4 for RR? To be quite frank, there really any strong contenders!
The ideal candidate would be left-handed and a good player of spin. Unless Rajasthan are about to unearth another diamond from the rough then they do not possess this profile of player in their squad.
In fact, the likes of Hetmyer, Parag, Ferreira, Jurel and Powell are all suited to batting at the death and hitting pace bowling. Similarly, Shubham Dubey who you would imagine will get game time given his price tag, primarily bats at 5 or 6 in domestic cricket and plays in the finisher role.
If the top 3 of Rajasthan don't bat through until at least the 12th over then you'd be concerned about how their batting options will manage the middle overs let along the remainder of a powerplay if they happen to go 2 down early on.
One thing is for sure, the Royals do like to attempt some innovate solutions to their shortcomings so it should be fun to see what they come up with but the underlying stats suggest a very definite weakness to slow bowling in the middle order not to mention that they are once again short of a genuine all-rounder to help balance their side.
Career T20 bowling stats by phase of the game
With Prasidh Krishna fit and Avesh Khan brought into the side then Rajasthan's fast bowling stocks look stronger than the same time last season.
Trent Boult took 10 of the 18 powerplay wickets that RR claimed last season and if the Royals can get at least one of their home grown seamers striking regularly in that phase of the game as well as keeping things very tight again then they should be in good shape.
Certainly having the likes of Chahal and Ashwin to bowl in the middle overs when a side is already a couple down and trying to up the ante would mean that it is very much advantage Royals.
What the Royals don't really possess is a specialist death bowler but if we assume that their first choice line-up will include the 3 seamers mentioned above then they are collectively capable of doing a job and sharing the responsibility out amongst themselves to close the innings.
At times last season we also saw Chahal bowling very deep into the innings, particularly when the Royals played 3 spinners. Given the way that most teams line-up with specialist pace bowling hitters in their lower-middle order (much like the Royals themselves) then that's not a bad tactic and one that we may well see deployed by the double Rs amongst others during IPL 2024.
What Rajasthan look likely to struggle with again is accommodating a bowler of genuine pace in their starting XI. They do possess Saini and Sen in their squad, both of whom have been deemed good enough to represent India in the not too distant past but both players were limited to just 2 appearances each in IPL 2023.
Again, balance is the big issue. If you have a 6th or better yet a 7th bowling option in your squad then you can accommodate a bowler like the 2 mentioned above and ask them to go out and bowl fast and aggressive in the hunt for wickets safe in knowledge that if it doesn't come off and they go for a few runs then you can always chuck the ball to someone else.
Who are Rajasthan going to throw the ball to in those instances? Rovman Powell? Riyan Parag? You're really scrapping the barrel if those are the only options available too you.
The main issues that prevented Rajasthan Royals from making last season's playoffs persist and in fact you could argue have gotten even more problematic from where they were this time last year.
They don't appear to have players well suited to batting 4 or 5 and capable of scoring in those middle overs particularly against slow bowling.
It means that they are going to be heavily reliant once again on their top 3 to do the bulk of the run scoring and ensure that they bat through large portions of any innings in order for the Royals to make competitive totals.
That being said, you'd be a brave man to completely write off the chances of a team that has players like Jaiswal, Buttler, Chahal and Ashwin all individuals capable of winning matches and indeed tournaments on their own.
I've always considered myself a Royals fan partly due to the large English contingent they've historically brought in but also because they do like to think outside the box and come up with innovative solutions to cricketing problems.
Here however is a problem that I don't think any amount of innovation is going to solve. How do you utilise your greatest bowling strength (the dual spin attack of Chahal and Ashwin) while not exposing your greatest batting weakness (a lack of middle order players who can hit spin)? This problem is particularly pressing at home where if recent IPL records at the Sawai Mansingh Stadium are anything to go by then the pitch will favour slower bowling!
I expect that the Royals have the talent to win enough games and keep themselves in the hunt for a playoff spot but I also think their weaknesses will be exposed regularly enough to prevent them from making the top 4 come the final reckoning.
All stats used in this blog are from my own database which is freely accessible at T20 head to head. Images are my own with the exception of player profiles and background images which are used under a creative commons license or otherwise royalty free
