Welcome back for round 7 of Matchday Matrix.
Harry Kane's late equaliser last night may not have had much impact on the Bayern v PSG semi-final result but it had a significant one on the scoring for round 6 of MM ensuring that BTTS and draw predictions, many on the former that had the 3x multiplier on them, came to pass.
As you can see below, that has begun to stretch the leaderboard out a bit so while there are still 28 points to play for, some users are going to need to score big in the remaining rounds to catch-up.
Tonight's fixtures are once again centred around European competitions with the semi-final 2nd legs of the Europa and Conference Leagues.
It's worth remembering for 4 of the matches in this round that the odds described below represent the 90 minute markets. However, there is every chance that with 3 of the ties seeing the home side behind by just a single goal that we will get extra time. Any goals, cards and corners during that period will count and that bonus 30mins could make all the difference for any of the outcomes.
Both teams rested a significant number of their starting XI's for this match. Villa were woeful in their match against Spurs, Forest's 2nd string beat Chelsea with ease.
Whether that will have any bearing on the outcome of this game remains to be seen but Forest certainly have momentum behind them. That's 5 wins on the bounce in all competitions and unbeaten in their last 10. Villa's form over the same period has been far more patchy
Villa come into this as favorites to overturn the 1st leg deficit but Forest to get a draw look decent odds at 3.8. This will be the 4th meeting of these 2 teams in the last 4 months with a win for both and draw so far.
The 90min BTTS is 1.75 and over 2.5 goals 1.80.
The first leg between these 2 produced just a single yellow card but in recent games in the league these 2 have consistently breached the 3.5 mark. Odds to do so again in what could be a tense match are 1.44
We has 11 corners in the first leg and Forest are likely to defend quite deep again today suggesting that we should see plenty more set-piece opportunities. Odds on over 10.5 corners is 1.83
After a really good first 6 months of the season, Freiburg's form seems to have deserted them just at the wrong moment.
No win in their last 4 with defeats in the semi-final of the domestic cup and the first leg of this tie hurting their ambitions for a trophy. They have also been cut adrift in the race for an automatic spot in Europe for next year and so have all their eggs left in this one basket.
They are favourites to win the tie with a draw priced at 3.5
Conceeding goals has been Freiburg's most immediate issue during that period with no clean sheet in their last 6. That makes BTTS at 1.85 and over 2.5 goals at 1.95 look like pretty decent odds.
Braga meanwhile are 4th in the Portugese league and miles behind the 'Big 3'. Again, their immediate focus is this competition.
Where they have been excellent this season is away from home. Only Ferencváros of Hungary have recorded victory against them on what is now 9 away trips to have reached this stage of the competition.
There were just 4 corners in the first leg and across the whole of their respective seasons matches featuring these 2 are averaging about 8.5 corners so that looks an outcome to avoid.
There were however, 5 yellow cards in the first leg with the ref for this match being Anthony Taylor who averages 5.25 yellow cards per Europa League game this season.
In the wake of how good PSG and Bayern looked in their semi-final, there has been a fair amount of criticism of English football and the Premier League. I'd agree that the season hasn't been particularly entertaining but at the same time Palace are on course to ensure that English clubs are represented in the finals of all 3 continental competitions.
Having won the first leg 3-1 away from home, you'd think that this should be a formality for the Eagles who are priced at firm favourites with a draw at 4.0.
Will there be goals? It's always tough to tell. There is absolutely no onus on Palace to make this an open match. Outside of that win in the first leg, their form has been pretty poor of late so they'll be happy to hear the final whistle in order to prepare for the final.
Shakhtar are top of the Ukrainian top flight and cruising to the title. Winning is much more of a habit for them and they'll need to go for it in this game. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.67.
Over 10.5 corners is priced way out at 2.7 and yellow cards (over 3.5) at 1.8.
This is the least likely tie to go to extra time and might be the one that players are left to fill with whichever outcomes they don't fancy elsewhere.
Again, a home team looking to overturn a 1-0 deficit. It could be fund, it could be more than 90mins of football.
Strasbourg finished top of the group stage of the Conference league with 5 wins and draw. Their home form in Europe has been strong with them overturning a 2 goal deficit against Mainz in the QF winning 4-0 here. They've also tasted victory here against fellow semi-finalists Crystal Palace.
Rayo Vallenco's record away from home has not been great this season. Just 4 wins on their travels in La Liga and recent defeats in Europe (3-1 in Athens and 2-1 in Bratislava). It makes odds of a Strasbourg win at 1.91 look quite decent. A draw is priced at 3.50
BTTS is 1.70 and over 2.5 goals at 1.80.
The market to really watch on this one looks like card. There were 9 of them in the first leg so plenty of needle to carry over into what should be a competitive fixture.
Cristiano Ronaldo's Al Nassr will be looking to respond to Hilal's win earlier in the week and their own loss at the weekend that has cut the gap at the top to just 3 points.
That was only Nassr's 4th defeat of the season so they are big favourites to win against languishing in 13th.
The bookies are also backing them to win big. BTTS is 1.55 but over 2.5 goals is as short as 1.35.
Al Shdab are coming off a 5-1 home defeat in their last match and haven't won a game since March so those odds on leaders and top scorers Al Nassr running up a cricket score look like decent value.
In fact with the goal difference between Al Nassr and Al Hilal also being very tight, it's certainly in their interest to win and win big should the title come down to such fine margins.
| Place | Account | Previous Round Score | Total Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  @zusi78 | 6 | 28 |
| 2 |  @twicejoy-sports | 6 | 27 |
| 3 |  @sportsgeek | 5 | 26 |
| 4 |  @uwelang | 5 | 25 |
| 4 |  @workingdad | 5 | 25 |
| 6 |  @danideuder | 3 | 24 |
| 7 |  @caspermoeller89 | 6 | 22 |
| 8 |  @blanchy | 1 | 20 |
| 8 |  @talesfrmthecrypt | 2 | 20 |
| 8 |  @doombot75 | 5 | 20 |
| 11 |  @dirtyleeds | 2 | 17 |
| 12 |  @mondoshawan | 1 | 1 |
Cut off for tonight's matches is in 2.5 hrs at 7pm (BST)
