A few years ago I wrote a blog on a few of my all-time favourite sporting conspiracy theories during which I stated that I'm not a big believer in these kind of tales.
To me, they often provide a bit of cover to teams, players and managers to explain away poor performances and results that didn't go their way. However, given the level of corruption that is increasingly found in the upper echelons of sport around the world, it's not really surprising that they keep popping up and that people continue to see truth in them - no smoke without fire as they say.
Chief amongst the corrupt sporting bodies of the world is FIFA. A recent Netflix series released just in time for the controversial Qatar World Cup details the history of football's governing body and its fall from grace in recent years. The allegations of greed and corruption are backed up by witness testimony and international criminal investigations and therefore don't in themselves fall into the category of conspiracy theories per se but do perhaps suggest that further deception is yet to be uncovered.
It's perhaps not surprising then that this year's World Cup has been riddled with a variety of conspiracy theories as we'll se below.
Spain deliberately lost to Japan
Let's start with this one from the first round of the World Cup. Group E drew plenty of attention pre-tournament simply by the fact that it contained 2 recent winners of the World Cup in Germany and Spain. Surely Japan and Costa Rica were just there to make up the numbers?
However, Japan's opening game victory against the 2014 champions immediately threw a spanner into the works and the group became even more tightly contested when the Japanese followed that historic win up by getting sucker punched by Costa Rica.
Going into the final round of matches all 4 sides had a chance of making it through to the knockout stages with Spain the only team who could sneak through to the 2nd round even with a defeat.
Controversy in the match also centred around a decision to award Japan a goal when it appeared the ball had crossed the byline. Well after the full-time whistle, FIFA released the above 4K image that vindicated the VAR decision source
The conspiracy theory then is that Spain deliberately lost their final match against Japan for several reasons. Firstly, they considered Morocco to be an easier draw in the 2nd round than Croatia (if true that didn't work out so well!), they also believed that finishing second would give them an easier route to the final by avoiding the half of the draw that contained pre-tournament favourites Brazil and of course, as an added bonus, defeat against Japan would knock the Germans out and who amongst didn't enjoy seeing them packing their bags early?
Plausibility: We know that this kind of thing does go on at major tournaments. In fact, prior to the final round of matches in Group E, I wrote this blog which mentioned the 1982 Disgrace of Gijón and the potential for this kind of thing to happen in this very fixture!
However, my pre-game theory was based more on the likelihood that this game would finish in a bore draw rather than a Japan win and while Spain's defeat did achieve all of the aforementioned aims, it did so at significant risk to their own chances of qualification.
You have to remember that when Japan went ahead in the match with a quick double after half-time, Germany were still only a goal up against Costa Rica. Less than 20 minutes later, it was 2-1 to Costa Rica and that point Spain were out too! With Germany going on to score 3 late goals to change that fact, I'm sure that the Spanish players and fans were able to relax for the last few minutes of their game but it seems unlikely that they would have collectively decided to throw the match at half-time with the standings at that point being so close.
Of course, the Japan v Spain match also saw a controversial VAR decision in the build up to Japans 2nd goal which only served to heighten the feeling particularly amongst German fans that they'd been hard done by. The delay in releasing the footage that VAR used to decide the ball was still in also gave rise the theories of some kind of cover-up by the powers that be.
FIFA have decided that this is Messi's World Cup
This particular conspiracy theory has gained traction during the Quarter Final stage as a result of a couple of incidents.
Firstly, there was the shocking refereeing performance in the Argentina v Netherlands match in which several Argentine players including Messi himself could/should have been sent off.
The level of shithousery that we saw from Argentina in that game is hardly a new thing. This is a team that knows how to use the 'dark arts' to achieve a hard fought win and that's just what they did in this fixture. Still, I think anyone who watched the game would have to admit that the referee lost control of this one with some of the players behaviour on both sides going too far.
The referee in this instance was from Spain which pre-match did raise a few eyebrows and suggest potential bias towards the Spanish speaking Argentines. In fact, Messi, who himself could have been sent off had his earlier blatant handball been yellow carded, was very critical of the referee post-match and suggested he shouldn't be allowed to officiate in the tournament again.
Secondly, was the decision to appoint an Argentine referee for the Portugal v Morocco game which has not gone down well with several of the Portuguese squad. Here's a quote from Manchester United midfielder Bruno Fernandes
"I don't know if they're going to give the trophy to Argentina. I don't care, I'm going to say what I think and screw them. It's very weird that a ref officiates us from a country still in the competition. Clearly they've tilted the field against us."
It looks like Bruno is primed to take over from CR7 as the biggest whinger for both club and country!
previously unseen footage of Cristiano Ronaldo's reaction to hearing that he won't be winning the World Cup
Plausibility: It all seems rather dramatic really. I'm not sure how Portugal's uninspired performance against Morocco can be blamed on the ref or particularly how that influences Argentina's chances of making the final given that they are on the other side of the draw from Portugal!
There were some suggestions that more added time could have been played in the 2nd half due to some Morocco time wasting but let's not forget that Portugal did receive an 8 additional minutes during which time they engineered 2 of their better chances including a Pepe header that went wide in the closing moments. Ironically the 39-year-old defender too had some choice words about the decision to appoint an Argentine to officiate a game in which Portugal recorded 0.9 expected goals in 100 minutes of football.
On the other hand, Messi undoubtedly does get favourable decisions from referees at both club and international level but this is nothing new and is not just confined to him. Let's not forget that another global superstar, Cristiano Ronaldo, was awarded a very dubious penalty in Portugal's opening fixture against Ghana which helped him become the first man to score at 5 World Cups.
At the time (65mins) the game was nil - nil and Portugal had mustered expected goals of just 0.66 against the lowest ranked team in the competition. If anything, this suggests that it's Portugal who need help from the referees to allow them to break down well organised opposition defences.
PSG's stars and France are destined to meet in the final
This theory builds again on some of the poor refereeing standards we've seen in the later stages of the tournament as well as the initial award of the World Cup to Qatar and their ownership of one of the richest clubs in the world PSG.
We've covered the supposed bias towards one PSG star, Lionel Messi, above but England fans are also feeling aggrieved over several decisions in the France v England QF that saw another PSG forward, Kylian Mbappe advance in the tournament.
Firstly, there was the blatant foul in the build up to France's first goal which was missed by the referee and not overturned by VAR and then later in the half, a claim for a penalty to England after Harry Kane got the wrong side of the hapless Dayot Upamecano who spent most of the matching hauling down opposition players without punishment.
So OK, there has been some shit officiating but again this is nothing new, the standard of refereeing on an average week in the Premier League is atrocious and really for it to hold up as a conspiracy theory we need to ask why would officials or administrators want one nation to succeed over another?
Here's where things get a bit murky when it comes to Qatar and their successful bid to host the 2022 World Cup not to mention their ownership of PSG, a subject that has long been the concern of football fans.
The allegations and in many cases criminal convictions of FIFA officials selling votes to the highest bidders for the rights to host the World Cup are fairly well known but what is less well known is the influence that the French government themselves may have had on the decision to award the tournament to Qatar.
Just prior to the vote in 2010, then French President Nicolas Sarkozy met with the Crown Prince of Qatar and following that meeting he is said to have instructed then President of UEFA and fellow Frenchman Micheal Platini to approach FIFA President Sepp Blatter and push the Qatari case for hosting the World Cup. In Blatter's own words Platini was told by his national President to “See what you and your colleagues from UEFA can do for Qatar when the World Cup is awarded.”.
Both Blatter and Platini were charged with fraud relating to payments from the former to the later but were later acquitted by a Swiss court source shared under CC license
The World Cup was then awarded to Qatar, something which Blatter later stated was "a mistake" and 6 months later Qatar signed an agreement with the French to buy $14 billion worth of fighter jets which Blatter also alluded to as a contributing factor towards Platini and UEFA's backing of the Qatari bid.
Investigations have been made on all 3 individuals involved although not specifically around the arms deal and the potential impact that had on pushing for the Qatar bid.
One investigation though that has failed to take off is the potential involvement of PSG president Nasser Al-Khelaifi who is accused of hiding and destroying sensitive information about Qatar's bid for the 2022 World Cup from police who were investigating financial incentives for votes.
Al-Khelaifi is a Qatari businessman who amongst other influential positions is the chairman of Qatar Sports Investments, the Qatari sovereign wealth fund dedicated to investments in the sport and leisure industry on a national and international level not to mention a member of the organising committee for the FIFA Club World Cup. It seems unlikely that he hasn't got several of his dirty little fingers in multiple pies not to mention being a key power broker in ongoing relationships between French and Qatari politicians.
Plausibility: The world of sport has become big business and big business is full of corruption. We already know that vote buying has been common place not just for this World Cup but for many others too.
How much you believe the French government interfered with the World Cup voting in order to smooth over a multi-billion dollar arms deal begs the question as to which sack of shit involved in the process you believe more.
Is it sack of shit number 1, Sepp Blatter who these days likes to portray himself as just a kindly old Swiss gent who might have made a couple of mistakes in life (we're all human after all) and can't possibly be held responsible for the corruption that was endemic in an institution that he was largely responsible for both creating and overseeing...
Or would you prefer sack of shit number 2, Nicolas Sarkozy who will tell you that getting business deals over the line is simply part of his job and very much in the national interest. Remember this is the same Nicolas Sarkozy who just last year was convicted in two separate corruption trials...
Even if you are inclined towards the no smoke without fire way of thinking on this matter, does it mean that any deal done by the respective French and Qatari governments as well as FIFA actually included influencing the outcome of football games? Let's not forget that had Harry Kan have smashed home that late penalty then we might not be having this discussion at all ...