I still remember when a friend of mine told me about the "next big thing" back in late 2021 when markets seem to only went up. It was probably another new shiny cryptocurrency that he thought would "definitely" change everything.
Now, I'm beginning to grasp that something more potent like pure, undiluted hopium can overshadow our own convictions.
Previously, I thought having conviction was about doing your own research and standing firm. Little did I know that what I called "research" could well be just sophisticated confirmation bias.
Conviction without critical thinking is just another form of self-deception, in my view.
We've all been there, haven't we? This sweet spot where reality blurs and self-deception is the main colored glass we look from.
It starts innocently enough. You join groups with attention grabbing names like 'Diamond Hands' or 'To The Moon,' not knowing that the very language is designed to reinforce conviction.
Soon, you're deep in an echo chamber, rewired to think that every dip is "the last chance to buy" and every critic is a "non-believer."
Granted, it may seem a bit extreme to outsiders looking in but the shadow of hopium is much more psychological than financial.
And like any addictive substance, it conditions your brain to crave more, to seek that next hit of possibility, even as your portfolio bleeds red.
Now, the infrastructure of false or unsubstantial hope is a bit complex. I like to think of it as a cathedral built on shifting sands.
In the case of speculative investments in the digital space, the foundation is usually social media algorithms that know exactly what confirmation bias you're looking for.
Influencers could be its pillars, those who've mastered the art of selling dreams.
We could also add stained glass windows as the cherry-picked success stories that filter reality into beautiful, but misleading, patterns.
Needless to say, the more elaborate the promises, the shakier the foundation.
Sometimes, these pillars aka influencers may also be drowning in their own hopium, true believers of created narratives of their own.
Now, this architecture can interestingly held up for some time because it's reinforced by a powerful human element, which is the fear of missing out on the next big thing.
I think fear is a great conduit for hope, in that it's our mind's way of transforming anxiety about missing out into excitement about potential possibilities.
I think here's also where things get interesting. Because sometimes, buried in the ruins of collapsed and promising crypto projects is a kernel of innovation that keeps moving the needle forward.
It is said that noise can't happen without signal just like you can't make a smoke without first creating a fire.
Hopium in and of itself may be viewed as a destructive force that clouds judgment and distorts reality beyond recognition.
A complete absence of it might be equally damaging or rather paralyzing. Because without some degree of optimism, innovation could cease to exist.
I don't think it's a wise idea to eliminate hopium entirely(that's if it's possible), I view it more as a temporary jolt of motivation during difficult times.
To develop some form of immunity to its most potent strains, such as a blind belief that this time is fundamentally different from all previous cycles, is what's needed.
Experientially, the same force that drives people to sell their belongings to buy the dip also drives entrepreneurs to persist when all odds seem stacked against them, for example.
More like how the same cognitive bias that creates bubble after bubble, enables humans to attempt the seemingly impossible.
Like any powerful substance, the effects of hopium depend entirely on the dose and the purpose. A good rule of thumb is to let hope fuel your actions but not blind your judgment.
Thanks for reading!! Share your thoughts below on the comments.
