On 31st Jan 2025:
Natgate was oversold, 1.72, I was thinking to purchase the stock at a lower price without realising the fact that it is actually undervalue. Despite 2 days of sideway trading, I still stick with my plan.
Lesson learnt: Should purchase once it is undervalue, getting a small exposure will be nice enough
Hst: It is a bit dangerous to sell of a quarter of the stock given that the long run of share is going to be optimistic.
No Lesson learnt and no solution
Ytl Power: It is so fortunate that I able to secure a low price of the stock at 2.955. No idea when to sell off (Should plan one) given the fact that the demand for computing power won't lower just like the demand for electricity.
Takaful since 25th Nov to 25th Jan, It was a mistake for not profit taking at its highest pricing level, at 4.12? Even though I missed out the highest price, yet I missed out the second ideal timing, at 3.90. This is a sideway stock which have to do profit taking in appropriate timing.
Below is a 50-year projection table estimating the Chinese population proportion in Malaysia, assuming a current TFR of 0.8 and an annual decline rate of 1.5%. This model simplifies complex demographic dynamics but provides a baseline for understanding trends.
| Year | Chinese Proportion (%) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22.00% | Baseline (current estimate) |
| 2024 | 21.67% | |
| 2025 | 21.34% | |
| 2026 | 21.02% | |
| 2027 | 20.71% | |
| 2028 | 20.40% | |
| 2029 | 20.09% | |
| 2030 | 19.79% | |
| 2031 | 19.49% | |
| 2032 | 19.20% | |
| 2033 | 18.91% | |
| 2034 | 18.63% | |
| 2035 | 18.35% | |
| 2036 | 18.07% | |
| 2037 | 17.80% | |
| 2038 | 17.53% | |
| 2039 | 17.27% | |
| 2040 | 17.01% | |
| 2041 | 16.75% | |
| 2042 | 16.50% | |
| 2043 | 16.25% | |
| 2044 | 16.00% | |
| 2045 | 15.76% | |
| 2046 | 15.53% | |
| 2047 | 15.29% | |
| 2048 | 15.06% | |
| 2049 | 14.83% | |
| 2050 | 14.61% | |
| 2051 | 14.39% | |
| 2052 | 14.17% | |
| 2053 | 13.96% | |
| 2054 | 13.75% | |
| 2055 | 13.54% | |
| 2056 | 13.33% | |
| 2057 | 13.13% | |
| 2058 | 12.93% | |
| 2059 | 12.74% | |
| 2060 | 12.55% | |
| 2061 | 12.36% | |
| 2062 | 12.17% | |
| 2063 | 11.99% | |
| 2064 | 11.81% | |
| 2065 | 11.63% | |
| 2066 | 11.46% | |
| 2067 | 11.28% | |
| 2068 | 11.11% | |
| 2069 | 10.95% | |
| 2070 | 10.78% | |
| 2071 | 10.62% | |
| 2072 | 10.46% | |
| 2073 | 10.30% |
Let me know if you’d like adjustments to the model (e.g., varying decline rates or migration scenarios).
To estimate the Malaysian Chinese population 100 years from now (in 2125), assuming no changes in fertility rates, immigration, or policy interventions, we can apply a generation-based decline model, similar to the South Korean projection.
By 2125, under the assumption of no change in TFR and no immigration, the Malaysian Chinese population could decline to below 300,000, representing a 95% reduction from today. This trajectory suggests a near demographic collapse, with severe consequences for community sustainability and representation.
Further simulation has been conducted:
To simulate the population and proportion of Chinese Malaysians in 50 years, we need to consider the following factors:
Current Population
Total Malaysian population: ~33 million (2024 estimate)
Ethnic composition (2021 Census):
Malays: ~69.7%
Chinese: ~22.6%
Indians: ~6.6%
Others: ~1.1%
Estimated Chinese population: ~7.46 million
Birth Rate (2023 estimates)
Overall birth rate: ~1.7 births per woman (below replacement level)
Malay birth rate: ~2.1 (near replacement level)
Chinese birth rate: ~1.0–1.3 (well below replacement level)
Renunciation Rate
Recent trend: ~10,000–12,000 Malaysians renounce citizenship per year
~88% of renunciations are by Chinese (~9,000–10,500 Chinese Malaysians per year)
Death Rate & Migration
Malaysia has an aging population, especially among the Chinese community.
Mortality rates will increase in the next few decades.
Influx of foreign migrants might affect overall demographics.
I'll now simulate the estimated population and proportion of Chinese Malaysians in 50 years.
Projected Malaysian Population in 50 Years (2074)
Total population: ~49.15 million
Chinese population: ~5.36 million
Chinese proportion: ~10.91% (down from ~22.6% in 2024)
This simulation suggests that due to low birth rates and high renunciation rates, the Chinese population in Malaysia will shrink both in absolute numbers and as a proportion of the total population. In contrast, the Malay population will continue growing due to a higher birth rate.
RE: Excel Learning on 30th June 2024