On one hand, we hear about peace, negotiations, and agreements… and on the other, we see troops, attacks, and escalation.
THE U.S. PROPOSAL
So let’s start with the proposal the U.S. made to Iran. A 15-point proposal, presented as a “peace plan” a complete framework to end the conflict.
Now, if we go through every single detail, we’ll get lost. So let’s look at it the way an investor should.
What are they really asking for?
The U.S. is asking for three very specific things.
The first has to do with nuclear capabilities.
They’re asking Iran to completely dismantle its nuclear program. Not limit it, not control it. End it.
No uranium enrichment capability, surrender of all stockpiles, full dismantling of facilities like Fordow and Natanz, and of course, full transparency with international inspections.
In simple terms… “you will never acquire nuclear weapons.”
The second part concerns military power.
The U.S. wants Iran’s ballistic missile program restricted, both in number and range. It should be used strictly for defense, and all funding and support for groups operating across the Middle East must stop completely.
In practice, this means asking Iran to give up a large part of its geopolitical influence.
And the third part is the incentive.
If Iran agrees to all of this, the U.S. promises sanctions relief, reintegration into the global economy, and even support for civilian nuclear energy.
At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz would remain open and neutral something critical for the global oil market.
So overall, the U.S. proposal is essentially saying something very simple:
“Fully weaken yourself… and we’ll let you back in.”
IRAN’S RESPONSE
And this is where Iran’s response comes in.
It was clear. They rejected the proposal.
Not only that… they brought their own proposal to the table. First of all, Iran demands an immediate halt to attacks. Before any discussion even begins, they want the war to stop.
Then they ask for guarantees that this situation won’t repeat itself. That there won’t be another agreement that gets broken a few months later.
They demand compensation for the damage caused.
They want the broader regional conflict to end not just between the U.S. and Iran.
And finally… the most important point of all: they want control over the Strait of Hormuz.
And this is where the real problem becomes obvious. Because the U.S. wants a weakened Iran, while Iran is asking to strengthen its position.
So we’re not talking about small differences. We’re talking about two completely opposite strategies.
And that means that right now… an agreement is nowhere in sight.
THE TRUST PROBLEM
And as if that wasn’t enough, there’s another major issue.
Trust.
Because Iran does not trust Trump at all.
In previous negotiations, while talks were ongoing and there were signs of progress toward a deal… military strikes suddenly took place. In one case, there was even a scheduled meeting, and just days before it, attacks began.
So for Iran, the message is clear:
“We can’t trust you.”
And that’s why we’re seeing this stance:
“You’ve already misled us twice… we won’t fall for it a third time.”
And this is how we end up in one of the most unusual situations in recent years.
On one side, the U.S. says negotiations are ongoing. On the other, Iran says there are no negotiations at all. And at the same time… troops are being deployed to the Middle East, forces are being reinforced, and tensions keep rising.
THE MARKETS
Because while all this is happening… stocks are going up.
And oil is going down.
And this is the most interesting part.
Markets don’t react to what’s happening right now, but to what they believe will happen.
And right now, it seems they believe there will be a resolution.
But in reality, the two sides are far apart. There’s no trust, and military presence is increasing.
So what we’re seeing is a market that’s rising… not because the problem is solved.
But because it hopes it will be.
