Alright, let's get straight to it, because something happened this week that we simply can't ignore.
Brent crude surged to $88.10 per barrel. In just one week, it climbed 16%. Yes, you read that right. SIXTEEN PERCENT.
At the same time, in the Strait of Hormuz, where more than 100 ships a day were passing before the war, only... eight made the crossing on Thursday. Eight ships.
The ceasefire signed last month has collapsed. The United States completed its eighth consecutive night of strikes against Iran. And the markets are watching all of this unfold and reacting accordingly.
Let's start with the bigger picture, because without it, none of this makes sense.
On Friday, two American soldiers were killed in Jordan by Iranian missiles and drones, while another remains missing. That brings the total number of American deaths since the war began on February 28 to 16.
From there, events escalated quickly. Trump ordered another wave of strikes with two objectives: reducing Iran's ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and retaliating against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for the attack that killed American troops in Jordan.
Iran responded by suspending its commitments under the agreement. When Trump was asked for his response, he summed it up in three words:
"I couldn't care less."
Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, warned that the United States would face "unforgettable lessons" and declared that Trump's signature on the agreement was "completely worthless and without credibility."
Meanwhile, Iran is also striking neighboring countries. Kuwait came under attack at one of its desalination facilities, and this matters because nearly 90% of the country's drinking water comes from desalinated seawater. Bahrain also intercepted Iranian projectiles as air raid sirens sounded across the country.
At the same time, more than 50,000 American troops are currently deployed throughout the Middle East.
Now let's move to the part that affects all of us more directly.
September Brent crude gained 4.6% on Friday, closing at $88.10 per barrel. August WTI rose 4.5%, finishing at $82.49. Both benchmarks reached their highest levels since mid June.
The weekly move, however, is where the real story lies. Both benchmarks climbed roughly 16%, with Brent posting its third consecutive weekly gain.
"Why should I care about Brent?" you might ask.
Because eventually, it reaches your wallet.
In the United States, the national average gasoline price climbed above $3.99 per gallon on Sunday. Just one week earlier, it stood at $3.87.
And that's only the beginning of the chain reaction. Oil isn't just fuel. It affects transportation costs, manufacturing costs, and ultimately the prices consumers pay at the store.
Here's where things become even more interesting, because there's a major contradiction.
Trump stated that the Strait of Hormuz is open to everyone except Iran.
"It's open if they want to pass," he told Fox News.
The data tells a different story.
Only eight crossings on Thursday, down from fifteen the previous day. And the ships that are still making the journey are reportedly sailing with their tracking transmitters turned off.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright tried to reassure markets, saying that nearly 7 million barrels per day still move through the strait, with a similar volume transported via bypass pipelines. When confronted with data showing a dramatic collapse in shipping traffic, he replied:
"Almost all of the public data I've seen is wrong."
So who's right?
Let's hear from the people actually onboard the ships.
At least nine vessels have been attacked since July 6.
One tanker off the coast of Oman was struck, killing one sailor and injuring three others. On the same day, another tanker suffered an attack that injured eleven crew members.
The attacks have involved anti ship missiles, while the traditional shipping lane through the middle of the Strait is now considered too dangerous because of naval mines.
As Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of the Athens based shipping company Marisks, put it:
"Nobody wants to move."
He added:
"This is no longer about money. Fear is now driving decisions."
As Jakob Larsen of BIMCO explained, the decision isn't made solely by the shipowner sitting in an office. The crew also has to agree to make the voyage.
To put the scale into perspective, before the war, roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
So where does this go from here?
There are three possible paths.
The first is de escalation.
If shipping companies become convinced that the United States has genuinely neutralized the Iranian threat, traffic could gradually return. But that will require credible security guarantees from both sides.
The second path is alternative routes.
On Friday, Iraq and Syria signed an agreement to rebuild the pipeline from Kirkuk to Syria's Mediterranean coast. The pipeline has a capacity of 700,000 barrels per day but has remained shut since 2003.
The United Arab Emirates is building a second pipeline to Fujairah, while Saudi Arabia is considering an expansion that would redirect another 2 million barrels per day toward the Red Sea.
However, there's a major catch.
Bob McNally of Rapidan Energy put it bluntly:
"The problem isn't the passage itself. Iran can strike the loading facilities, pumping stations, export terminals, and storage sites connected to those pipelines."
The third path is further escalation.
Iran and the Houthis are now threatening to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea as well, which has become the main alternative route for Saudi exports.
Iraq's oil production has already fallen by more than 50%, dropping from 4.2 million to 1.9 million barrels per day.
Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund warned of the risk of a "forever war."
"We have enormous capabilities and tremendous operational strength," he said, "but strategic mistakes continue to hold us back."
