Today I’m going to talk about Tesla, which seems to be losing ground.
At the same time, the whole world is shifting toward electric vehicles.
And the strangest part? Elon Musk seems to have his focus elsewhere.
On one hand, I see a massive transition toward electrification. On the other, geopolitical developments are reshaping everything. And somewhere in the middle, Tesla appears to be losing its momentum.
TESLA’S NUMBERS
Let me start straight with the latest updates.
Tesla announced its Q1 2026 results, and honestly, they didn’t impress the market. Deliveries came in at 358,000 vehicles, while analysts were expecting something closer to 365,000 to 370,000. So this was a clear miss.
And as I’ve said many times, the market doesn’t forgive these kinds of deviations easily. It doesn’t just care whether a company is growing. It cares whether it’s growing as much as expected.
And here, Tesla fell short.
The reaction was immediate. The stock dropped about 5.5%, and overall in 2026 it’s already down more than 17%.
Now, to be fair, there is still about 6% growth compared to last year. So we’re not talking about a collapse. But what really matters here is the bigger picture.
Because the real story isn’t one quarter. It’s the trend.
And the trend clearly shows a slowdown. Tesla’s total sales have already dropped from 1.79 million in 2024 to 1.64 million in 2025. So not only is it not growing like before, it’s actually starting to decline.
And there’s another important detail.
Out of the 358,000 vehicles delivered, 341,000 were Model 3 and Model Y.
In other words, the entire company is basically relying on two models.
The Model S and Model X no longer play a meaningful role, and Tesla has effectively become a much more limited product company. And when you depend on one or two products, any change in demand affects you disproportionately.
So what I see is a company growing more slowly, missing expectations, and relying heavily on a narrow product lineup.
Which brings up the big question.
Is Tesla itself to blame, or is it the competition?
CHINESE COMPANIES ARE TAKING SHARE
The reality is that Chinese manufacturers are entering the market more aggressively than ever.
Within a year, they nearly doubled their market share in Europe, reaching around 8%.
And that didn’t happen by accident.
I’m talking about companies like BYD and Leapmotor, which have managed to enter the market very aggressively, offering more options, better pricing, and most importantly, greater flexibility.
And here’s the key point. They’re not only competing in EVs. They’re very strong in hybrids as well, and that gives them a huge advantage.
Because the average consumer today isn’t ready to jump straight into a fully electric car.
At the same time, they’re investing in factories within Europe, reducing costs, and moving at speeds that traditional manufacturers struggle to match.
So it’s not necessarily that Tesla is doing something disastrously wrong. It’s that the competition is becoming much smarter.
WAR IS BOOSTING EV DEMAND
And if I thought that was the biggest issue, here comes the real plot twist.
At the same time Tesla is under pressure, demand for electric vehicles is starting to rise.
And the reason is purely macroeconomic.
The war in the Middle East, particularly the conflict involving Iran, has disrupted energy markets and pushed oil prices higher.
And when oil goes up, gasoline follows. And when gasoline rises, consumer behavior changes.
Suddenly, driving a conventional car becomes much more expensive.
Interest in EV purchases has increased significantly, and leasing demand has also risen sharply.
And it makes perfect sense. Beyond cost, there’s also the issue of energy independence. I want to depend less on geopolitical crises and unstable energy markets.
But there’s an important detail here. This transition doesn’t happen overnight. It’s gradual.
EVs are still more expensive than traditional cars, charging infrastructure still has limitations, and many consumers still worry about range.
So what do I actually see? Demand for EVs is increasing, but not explosively. And more importantly, not necessarily in Tesla’s favor.
TESLA IS FOCUSED ON THE FUTURE
And this is where the real issue starts to become clear.
While the market is growing, Tesla doesn’t seem to be capturing the share you might expect. And on top of that, it seems to be shifting its focus elsewhere.
Instead of focusing on the present, it’s increasingly betting on the future. Robotaxis, Optimus, artificial intelligence.
Even the Cybertruck, which I expected to be a game changer, hasn’t gone mainstream.
On top of that, when I look at Elon Musk, it feels like he’s playing on multiple fronts.
And perhaps the most important one isn’t Tesla.
SpaceX is preparing for a potential stock market listing.
We’re talking about a possible valuation above 1.5 trillion dollars. One of the largest IPOs we’ve ever seen.
SpaceX needs massive capital to fund its ambitious plans, from satellite networks to AI projects and space infrastructure.
At the same time, I see a convergence of all Musk’s companies. SpaceX, xAI, Starlink, even the X platform. Everything is starting to connect.
A massive ecosystem is forming around AI, data, and energy.
And that leads to the big question.
What if Elon Musk’s biggest opportunity is no longer Tesla?
