So, let's take a look at what has been happening in the Middle East over the past few days.
On one side, the US and Iran have exchanged strikes. Ballistic missiles targeting American warships, Iranian tankers sent to the bottom, and statements along the lines of, "If you fire on us, we'll sink your fleet."
On the other side, at that exact same time, Tehran announced that it was in the final stages of an agreement with Oman concerning the Strait of Hormuz.
And in the middle of all this, oil prices have once again moved dangerously close to $100.
On Saturday, the Revolutionary Guards fired ballistic missiles at two American warships: an aircraft carrier and a destroyer. According to CENTCOM, the ships evaded the attacks and nobody was injured.
The response came later that same day. The US struck three Iranian tankers: one off the island of Kharg, one near Jask, and one in the Gulf of Oman. One of them was permanently put out of service.
And this is where it matters to listen carefully to what CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper actually said:
"If you fire on two of our ships, we will impose an even greater economic cost on you. We will take three of yours out of the picture."
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made it even simpler in a post: if Iran fires on American ships, the US will destroy and sink Iranian tankers.
And Tehran? Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf responded with a single line: "Hit ours and you will be hit." Iran's Foreign Ministry called it a "war crime" and "economic warfare."
And as if all of that were not enough, Saudi Aramco's facilities in Jizan came under another attack on Monday. The site contains a refinery with a capacity of 400,000 barrels per day, and the damage is still being assessed.
And now, the strangest part of the whole story.
Amid all of this, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei announced in Tehran that the agreement with Oman on managing navigation through the Strait of Hormuz was in its final stages. It will provide for a temporary safe corridor and will be submitted to the UN's International Maritime Organization.
"The talks have progressed very well," he said. He also added that he hoped there would be no interference from third parties. Which third parties? He did not name them. But I think we can all figure that out.
"And why is this such a big deal?" you might be wondering.
Because Iran and Oman both border the Strait. And, by all indications, they will also introduce transit fees. In simple terms, they are formalizing their control over the planet's most critical energy passage. The US, for its part, wants Hormuz to return to what it was before the war: open to everyone.
And to understand the scale of the problem, Macquarie analysts estimate that around 7 million barrels per day are currently passing through the strait. Before the war, that figure was 20 million. And the ships that are still passing through are doing so because a small group of shipowners is willing to take the risk. At the right price, of course.
There is, however, one big "but." At the same time that Iran is talking about an agreement, it is warning that ships are at risk near Oman's coastline. So you can understand how stable this whole arrangement really is.
Now let's move on to what affects all of us directly: oil prices.
Brent rose 1.5% to $97.72 a barrel, reaching $97.93 intraday. That was its highest price since July 23. At one point, it also crossed $98. WTI rose 1.8% to $93.12.
And pay attention to this. Brent is up 60% in 2026. And for the third time this year, it is approaching the $100 mark.
"And what is driving this?" you might be wondering. It is not just the war.
It is also China. Beijing has returned to the crude oil markets, and that has pushed prices higher from West Africa to Canada. Earlier in the war, China's absence from the market was one of the main reasons prices stayed low. Now that brake is gone.
At the same time, inventories are being depleted. "The rate at which inventories are declining has accelerated so much in recent weeks," Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects said on Bloomberg TV. "I genuinely believe crude is preparing for a significant move higher."
Goldman Sachs goes even further. Daan Struyven said that in a bullish scenario, where attacks on ships expand and intensify, Brent could reach $120.
So what does that mean for us? It means diesel and gasoline have already reached record highs in the US. It means inflation is coming under renewed pressure worldwide. And it means Trump is facing enormous political pressure to end this war, with Republicans at risk of losing Congress in the November midterm elections.
