So, let's start from the beginning. The United States and Iran signed a temporary peace agreement to halt the war. A 14-point memorandum.
What does this agreement actually say? In simple terms, two main things. First, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, with no transit fees, for at least 60 days. Second, all hostilities will stop. Even in Lebanon, where fighting between Israel and Hezbollah had continued.
Trump even posted that Iran had assured him there would be no tolls, insurance surcharges, or any other charges for ships passing through the strait.
There is, however, one big catch. This agreement is only a 60-day window. It is not the end of the story. It is essentially a pause designed to create space for a permanent solution. And even within Washington, several Republicans are already complaining that Trump gave too much away to Iran in exchange for a temporary result.
Now let's get to the most practical part. What happens to shipping?
Over the past few months, Iran had effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz. And remember, roughly 20% of the world's oil supply passes through it. This is not a minor issue.
So what has changed? Since the route reopened, more than 20 tankers carrying 35 million barrels of oil have left the Gulf. Some of these ships had been stranded there for more than three months. Oil flows have risen to about 4.8 million barrels per day.
"Sounds great, but are we back to normal?" you might ask.
Not yet. Before the conflict, around 15 million barrels per day were moving through the strait. So current volumes remain far below normal levels.
There is more good news, though. The risk level for commercial shipping has been downgraded to "moderate." Just days ago it was classified as "critical," the highest level possible. Meanwhile, the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the UN's shipping agency, announced a plan to safely evacuate more than 11,000 seafarers who had been stranded in the Gulf.
One particularly interesting detail is that many of the departing tankers had their tracking transponders switched off. In other words, they were moving quietly and avoiding visibility. That gives you a sense of just how uncertain the situation remained.
This is where things become even more interesting. As soon as the strait reopened, oil prices dropped sharply.
Brent crude fell more than 4%, to around $73-74 per barrel. U.S. benchmark WTI dropped below $70 for the first time since March. Think about that. Markets see supply returning and are beginning to calm down.
And, of course, there was some political theater involved.
Trump publicly accused oil companies of failing to lower gasoline prices even though crude oil was "falling like a rock." He claimed they were "ripping people off" and even suggested the Department of Justice should investigate.
Was he right?
Not exactly. Karen Young, an expert from Columbia University, described the comments as "political theater." Gasoline prices do not move in lockstep with crude oil prices. Local taxes, refining costs, and distribution expenses all play a role. It also takes several weeks for lower crude prices to work their way through to consumers. It does not happen overnight.
Now for the final piece. What issues remain unresolved?
The most complicated question involves Iran's frozen assets.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Treasury Department would oversee the funds once they are released. According to him, a large portion would be used to purchase American food and pharmaceutical products, including corn, wheat, and soybeans. The money would likely be transferred through Qatar under U.S. supervision.
However, this is where things become confusing.
Tehran is telling a completely different story. Iranian officials insist that nobody will dictate how they spend their own money. They say that if they purchase agricultural products, it will be based on price and quality, not because Washington tells them to do so.
So when will things fully normalize?
The tankers currently leaving the Gulf are expected to reach their destinations, mainly in Asia, by early August. But supply chains take time to recover. As a DHL executive noted, reopening the strait is a major step forward, but improvements will be gradual rather than immediate. The system will not return to normal overnight.
