When you look at the VanEck projection table, it is not really about guessing the exact price of ETH in 2030. It is about direction. Small differences in adoption, confidence, and macro conditions can compound into very different outcomes over time. And markets usually start pricing that direction well before the final destination.
By 2026, Ethereum is sitting in a genuinely interesting spot.
Macro cycles always come back around
Liquidity tightens, then it loosens. When rates eventually ease and investors feel more comfortable taking risk again, capital tends to flow toward assets with growth and real economic activity. Ethereum looks far stronger in that environment than it did in earlier cycles, because it now generates real revenue.
Ethereum is starting to look like infrastructure, not a science project
The base and bull cases assume Ethereum maintains a large share of smart contract activity. If, by 2026, Ethereum is still the main settlement layer for stablecoins, DeFi, and Layer 2s, it becomes much easier for the market to believe in those higher-value paths.
Revenue is the underrated part of the story
The table shows Ethereum potentially earning tens of billions per year in the base case by 2030, and far more in the bull case. You do not need those numbers to be fully visible yet. You just need the trend to be clearly moving in that direction for expectations to reset.
ETH starts behaving more like a “real” asset
Staking gives ETH yield. Fee burns help keep supply tight. From a macro perspective, that matters a lot. Investors naturally begin comparing ETH to other yield-producing assets instead of treating it as pure speculation.
Markets price the path, not the finish line
The gap between the bear, base, and bull cases is massive. By 2026, the real question is not “are we at the 2030 price.” It is “are we clearly not in the bear case.” If Ethereum keeps executing, prices can move significantly on improved confidence alone.
☃️ Confidence tends to snowball
When usage grows, revenue grows, supply stays tight, and regulation becomes clearer, confidence builds. That is usually when valuation models expand and optimism feeds on itself.
It really is that simple. Ethereum does not need to hit its long-term targets to be bullish in 2026. It just needs to keep proving that it is on the base or bull path shown in the table. If macro conditions help at the same time, the market can reprice that story much faster than most people expect.
