Alright, I’ll go straight to the point, because the war in the Middle East is not only continuing… it’s becoming increasingly dangerous for the global economy.
And if you think that’s an exaggeration, here’s one thing to keep in mind: there are now analysts estimating that oil could reach… $200 per barrel.
Let’s start with the latest developments.
The attacks in the Middle East haven’t stopped. In fact, they are expanding and becoming more targeted. We’re no longer talking just about military strikes. We’re talking about direct attacks on the world’s energy infrastructure.
In Qatar, the largest LNG plant in the world has been hit. In Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates, we’ve seen attacks on refineries and oil facilities.
And this is where things start to get serious.
We’re not talking about minor damage that can be fixed in a few weeks. We’re talking about destruction that, according to people within the industry, could take 3 to even 5 years to fully repair.
In other words, this is not a temporary shock. It’s a supply problem that could stay with us for years.
And naturally, the markets have started to react.
Oil prices can spike above $100 within hours, jump to $119, and then drop again. A real rollercoaster.
And when you see this kind of volatility, you know what most investors do? Nothing. They wait.
Trading volumes drop, traders stay on the sidelines, and uncertainty grows even more.
And as if that wasn’t enough, the political side is making things even more complicated.
For the first time, we’re seeing a public clash between the United States and Israel. Trump came out and said that Israel carried out attacks without his approval and that this will not happen again.
At the same time, other sources say that the US was fully aware of what was going to happen.
So a very strange situation is forming. On one hand, we see statements of distancing, and on the other, a reality that suggests coordination.
And when the world’s biggest powers don’t send a clear message, markets don’t know how to react.
And at this point, Europe also enters the picture, and for now, it does not want to get militarily involved.
This brings us to the most critical point of the whole story.
The Strait of Hormuz, where Europe is not sending ships because of fears they could become targets.
A massive percentage of the world’s energy passes through there. It is perhaps the most important point on the global energy map, and right now it is practically blocked.
And the most worrying part? There is no clear plan for how it will reopen. European officials themselves say the situation is “complex” and that they are still trying to fully understand the problem.
In simple terms, no one is in control.
So if we take a step back and look at the bigger picture, we have damaged energy infrastructure, a key passage effectively blocked, political instability, and zero visibility on what happens next.
And this is where the big banks come in.
JPMorgan, for example, has already started adjusting its forecasts. And what they are saying is simple, but concerning.
Markets have become complacent. They assume the war will end quickly and that everything will return to normal.
But what if that doesn’t happen? Then things change dramatically.
Because historically, when oil rises above a certain level, we don’t just get inflation. We get recession.
When energy becomes too expensive, consumers and businesses are forced to cut back. They reduce spending, lower production, and limit consumption.
And that slowly drags down the entire economy.
And if that sounds extreme, let’s look at what Bank of America says.
In a worst-case scenario, if the situation continues for months, oil could exceed $200 per barrel.
And we’re already seeing early signs.
Factories in Asia are starting to shut down. Some countries are reducing working days. There is pressure even on the agricultural sector.
Because energy is the foundation of everything. Without energy, nothing functions.
