20 months ago, the bear market in both the Crypto and Traditional markets (S&P 500) began. The bear market almost completely erased all the gains that were made during the Covid-19 pandemic. For some assets like Luna, Celsius, and FTX in the crypto market, and banks like Credit Suisse in the traditional markets, it resulted in significant losses. There were also many other assets affected, though they may not have made headlines.
At that time, everyone, including myself, was expecting the US economy to enter a recession. While it technically happened, a lot of data are now showing that the economy is not anywhere near a recession, but rather showing signs of economic vigor.
However, there are also many alarming signals pointing to a grim macro picture. Despite this, it appears that the Federal Reserve Bank policymakers have stopped worrying about inflation as much. Looking back at the beginning and the expectations during the rate hikes, it is almost as if Jerome Powell achieved the soft landing he wanted, something that many others believed was impossible. Inflation seems to have been tamed, the job market is thriving, and companies are profiting. Moreover, the S&P 500 has experienced eight weeks of gains in the last ten weeks, approaching the all-time high achieved during the era of unlimited money printing.
Now, I am not sure how to interpret what is going on. When #BTC was surging at the beginning of 2023, it was expected that a bear market rally would eventually occur in the stock market. However, the levels we are reaching now resemble more of a bull run than a bear market rally. It's worth noting that if the S&P 500 continues to rise, BTC will probably follow suit.
The question remains: is this the beginning of a bull market or just another pump-and-dump scheme aimed at draining liquidity?