This past week, we saw Bitcoin breaking $70,000, officially reaching a new all-time high. We still have a long way to go until the BTC halving, and traditionally, the peak of the cycle comes months afterward. If we consider this as a recurring pattern in this cycle, then 2025 might be the year of the peak, suggesting we may have one more year of bullish momentum.
Of course, each cycle is different; narratives change, and the top 20 assets of the previous cycle will likely differ substantially in this one. I'm confident we still have ample time to capitalize on gains, discovering coins that could yield life-changing returns, as new projects emerge and older ones fade away.
However, what I'm beginning to contemplate and plan for is a potentially different cycle altogether. It's undeniable that this cycle feels somewhat distinct, primarily due to the emergence of ETFs and significant inflows, leading us into uncharted territory. One noticeable change is Bitcoin's evolving behavior, particularly resembling that of a traditional asset, especially when US markets open. However, the wild fluctuations in the crypto market persist when the US markets are closed. While BTC trades 24/7, it's uncertain if this dynamic will ever change.
What if this cycle deviates significantly, with the peak not occurring in 2025? What if we don't witness a prolonged bull run, but a rapid one instead? This notion stems from a theory suggesting commodities undergo a 12-year supercycle, with three smaller cycles, culminating in a faster final cycle, albeit with fewer gains, but still reaching a higher peak than the second. Following this 12-year cycle, there's typically a prolonged bear market lasting up to four years before a new 12-year cycle commences.
I'm uncertain if this scenario is plausible, but this cycle is starting to feel accelerated. There are certain indicators I'll be monitoring before integrating this notion into my trading plan.
The most crucial factor for me is Bitcoin's behavior leading up to the halving. Since BTC's ascent began, it has seen no significant corrections, soaring from $30,000 to $70,000 without pause. While there's been considerable hype and inflow of funds through ETFs, this trend is concerning.
If this cycle mirrors previous ones in terms of health, I anticipate a substantial correction, perhaps around $47,000 to $52,000, followed by a prolonged consolidation phase before another surge. If this occurs, I could envision BTC reaching $150,000 at the cycle's peak. However, if not, it could signify a departure from the norm, suggesting this cycle won't extend to 2025, and I wouldn't expect BTC to surpass $100,000. In that case, I'll adjust my trading strategy accordingly.
