Dear god, where do I even start? Everything you just said is laughably wrong.

First, if you think military alliances prevent wars, I suggest reviewing World War I history. Also, I have no idea where you've gotten this idea that the world is more peaceful now than it was 70 years ago. Do you have any idea how many armed conflicts the US alone is involved in? The US has taken over meddling in the affairs of African countries now that the Soviet Union isn't around to do it anymore. Neither is justified...

...and I'm tired of tankies pretending that it is.

Next, no, NATO expansion was definitely the provocation. The democratically-elected government of Ukraine (which was allied with Russia) was overthrown by a NATO-backed coup in 2014. The oblasts of Donetsk, Lugansk, and Crimea refused to accept this, and seceded. Putin ordered the occupation of Crimea, but Ukraine invaded Donetsk and Lugansk.

Pro-NATO shills in Ukraine call this the "Euromaidan revolution," but everyone else calls it the "Euromaidan coup." Does it justify Putin's actions? No, absolutely not, two wrongs don't make a right. But my question to you is this: why does Ukraine deserve self-determination, but Donetsk and Lugansk don't?

Also, Russia hasn't lost half its army (just half its tanks), and Ukraine isn't winning. Ukrainians don't even want to fight anymore, and NATO is calling them cowards for it.

Putin doesn't even want more territory. It's an administrative nightmare to expand Russia, and Russia has plenty of natural resources, just not a whole lot of high-tech manufacturing, hence the need for trade, which segues perfectly to my next point. Putin only wants a direct land connection to Crimea because without it, Russia has no ice-free deepwater ports. This wasn't an issue when Ukraine and Russia were allies, but as you can see, alliances aren't forever, thus nations need to be as self-sufficient as possible. Putin knows this, I know this, but the oligarchs don't care, and thanks to systemic apathy brought on by corruption and government red tape, change is going to have to come from the top. We can't rely on West Taiwan forever.