Today we're covering the tournaments set to start this weekend through the lens of the now four models we have at our disposal. As always, I'll talk about the teams that have a realistic shot of winning and how much of a shot if any that any of these teams have making it to the national tournament without winning their conference tournament.
Sometime this weekend, I'll post the next model and go over the details of the model and then I cover the bigger tournaments next week with all five models at my disposal.
Last Year's Champion: Vermont
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermont | 24-7 | 1 | 2342.898 (20) | 0.1172 (54) | 0.1084 (49) | 0.251 (80) |
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stony Brook | 19-12 | 2 | 1456.541 (190) | 0.0375 (135) | 0.0310 (138) | 0.132 (170) |
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Hampshire | 15-14 | 5 | 1328.204 (217) | -0.0509 (232) | -0.0377 (221) | 0.085 (221) |
| Hartford | 16-15 | 3 | 1300.515 (222) | -0.0443 (223) | -0.0396 (224) | 0.082 (230) |
| UMBC | 15-16 | 4 | 1217.311 (241) | -0.0627 (244) | -0.0543 (246) | 0.071 (238) |
Vermont has been the dominant force in the America East conference for awhile and this year is no different. They lead the league with the 1 seed and have impressive model ratings all in the Top 100. They will be expected to win this tournament and need to as they would likely not make the tournament if they suffered another loss to the substandard competition in the conference.
Stony Brook is the top challenger, but they are quite some distance in terms of rating back from Vermont. They have Top 150 SPM and MASPM ratings, but they are 170 spots behind Vermont in the EDM rating and ended the season with a 4-4 record in conference after a strong start.
All remaining teams are outside the Top 200 in all four of the models. Hartford is the 3 seed and New Hampshire has the best ratings in the group. UMBC is sandwiched in between the two with the 4 seed and is notable for taking out Vermont in the conference finals a couple years back and then upsetting #1 Virginia in the national tournament. They would like to repeat that run, but first they have to face New Hampshire who is favored by all four models.
Last Year's Champion: Northeastern
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hofstra | 23-8 | 1 | 1983.202 (75) | 0.0904 (77) | 0.0813 (71) | 0.265 (72) |
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Towson | 19-12 | 3 | 1717.798 (125) | 0.0432 (124) | 0.0391 (128) | 0.176 (130) |
| William & Mary | 21-10 | 2 | 1478.223 (184) | 0.0665 (100) | 0.0458 (114) | 0.168 (137) |
| Delaware | 21-10 | 5 | 1588.460 (162) | 0.0589 (108) | 0.0416 (121) | 0.164 (139) |
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleston | 17-13 | 4 | 1577.249 (167) | 0.0282 (146) | 0.0293 (139) | 0.198 (112) |
| Northeastern | 15-15 | 6 | 1757.662 (116) | -0.0151 (193) | 0.0028 (177) | 0.181 (126) |
Hofstra leads the Colonial Athletic Association going into this tournament. Like Vermont, they have solid Top 100 ratings, but they probably don't have strong of enough resume to make it in the NCAA tournament without winning this tournament. While they are the favorites, they don't have a huge lead on some of their other competitors.
William & Mary and Delaware both had 20+ wins and have solid ratings outside of the EDM which discounts them a little. Delaware slipped a little in league play which puts them at the 5 seed, but William & Mary have won their last 5. Towson is at the top of this group because they have been hot. They have won 13 of their last 16 games which is one of the reasons they have a better EDM than the other challengers in the group.
In the outsiders group come two more teams with similar ratings according to the metrics, but with worst seeds and records. Northeastern won the tournament last year, so they have some experience although they were a 2 seed last year and only have a .500 record in conference.
Last Year's Champion: North Dakota State
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Dakota State | 22-8 | 1 | 1850.730 (100) | 0.0673 (98) | 0.0573 (98) | 0.145 (150) |
| South Dakota State | 22-9 | 2 | 1971.419 (78) | 0.0486 (118) | 0.0452 (118) | 0.132 (172) |
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Dakota | 20-11 | 3 | 1609.492 (151) | 0.0247 (153) | 0.0211 (151) | 0.103 (196) |
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oral Roberts | 16-13 | 4 | 1702.417 (130) | -0.0250 (204) | -0.0177 (197) | 0.095 (209) |
| Omaha | 16-15 | 5 | 1156.934 (264) | -0.0033 (180) | -0.0103 (192) | 0.069 (240) |
North Dakota State and South Dakota State had the same record in the Summit league with North Dakota State winning by tiebreakers. They split the season series and for the first time, the models disagree about which team they consider the favorite. North Dakota State has the edge in metrics, but the games are being played in South Dakota. These two teams are bitter rivals and it will be interesting which team can claim dominance in this one-bid league.
South Dakota is the lone challenger to the group with 20 wins and the 3 seed. They are a solid Top 200 team by all metrics, but are outside the elite group that leads the league. Oral Roberts has a nice EDM rating of 130 coming into the tournament winning 4 of their last 5 games. Omaha was also thrown in here as an outside pick due to their Top 200 SPM and MASPM ratings and (barely) winning record.
Last Year's Champion: Georgia State
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas State | 20-11 | 3 | 1932.695 (86) | 0.0556 (111) | 0.0550 (102) | 0.221 (94) |
| Little Rock | 21-10 | 1 | 1735.585 (121) | 0.0731 (92) | 0.0547 (103) | 0.184 (121) |
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia State | 19-12 | 4 | 1765.430 (115) | 0.0396 (132) | 0.0408 (122) | 0.212 (99) |
| South Alabama | 20-11 | 2 | 1640.989 (142) | 0.0422 (128) | 0.0319 (135) | 0.196 (115) |
| Team | Record | Seed | EDM | SPM | MASPM | WRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Southern | 18-13 | 5 | 1675.704 (137) | 0.0184 (162) | 0.0176 (158) | 0.172 (133) |
| Appalachian State | 17-14 | 6 | 1431.277 (193) | 0.0082 (174) | -0.0009 (181) | 0.135 (164) |
| UT Arlington | 14-17 | 7 | 1589.841 (157) | -0.0184 (196) | -0.0036 (183) | 0.170 (135) |
The Sun Belt conference is wide open. In all honesty, the challengers section and leaders section could be the same section. Most models like Texas State, but Texas State has to play an extra game due to the structure of the tournament. Little Rock is the 1 seed and favored by the SPM, but only four games separate the 1 seed from the 6 seed.
Georgia State is very competitive at the 4 seed with a Top 100 WRI and better ratings than South Alabama in all models except for the SPM. South Alabama has one less game they have to play as a result of getting the 2 seed which balances out their slightly weaker ratings. Georgia State will likely face Little Rock in the semifinals while South Alabama will most likely face Texas State.
Georgia Southern and Appalachian State are outsiders mainly due to the 2 extra games they have to play because most of their models are competitive with the top tier teams. UT Arlington is included because the models consider them a Top 200 team in spite of their 14-17 record. Given this is a tight one bid league, expect a tournament filled with close games and hard to predict outcomes (A great test for the models).
