The key support is broken

srezz

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2018-01-16 11:00

There's going to be a lot of disappointment for those who followed self-appointed market gurus with their "technical analysis" of the constantly appearing bullish triangles, flags and caps as well as brave projections to the moon.

For obvious reasons we will first look at Bitcoin which have been bouncing off 13 weeks WMA (blue) over the last 4 weeks. Today we decisively broke below it and it is safe to assume that this week close has no chance to recover back above 13 weeks WMA. The implications of such an event is huge. Because it means that BTC is heading to the lower $4K dragging the entire ALT universe down together with it.

An obvious temporary relief for the bulls will come when the market gets down to 34 weeks WMA (yellow) or lower $9K in absolute terms where I expect it to bounce strongly back to 13 weeks WMA (currently @ $13K) with possible overshots.

https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/8172652/btcusd-w1-simplefx-ltd

The daily chart will give us a closer view. The first daily volatility implied targets have been met and I don't expect the market to go any lower today. Then if we look at the 89 days WMA (brown) it is still slightly upwards looking which will prevent BTC from further falls until it levels off as well as 13 (blue) and 34 (yellow) days WMAs cross below it.

https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/8172716/btcusd-d1-simplefx-ltd

Some of the major ALT coins have reached their daily volatility implied targets, some just bounced off the next WMAs and now together with BTC will begin consolidating their losses.

BCH

https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/8172777/bchusd-d1-simplefx-ltd