If you're new to SportsBlock predictions or just want to understand exactly how your MEDALS are handled when you stake on a sports outcome, this post breaks it all down — from a standard prediction with multiple stakers to the edge cases where things work a little differently.
How a Prediction Market Works
Every prediction on SportsBlock follows the same basic structure:
- A prediction is created around a sporting event (e.g. Who wins Man United vs Liverpool?)
- Users stake MEDALS tokens on the outcome they believe will happen
- All stakes go into a shared pool
- When the event settles, the winners split the entire pool proportional to how much they staked
- A small platform fee is taken from the pool before payouts
That's the simple version. Let's look at what this actually looks like with real numbers.
The Standard Case: A Two-Sided Market
The Prediction: Man United vs Liverpool — Who Wins?
The Stakes:
| User | Outcome | Stake |
|---|---|---|
| Alice | Man United | 500 MEDALS |
| Bob | Man United | 300 MEDALS |
| Charlie | Man United | 200 MEDALS |
| Dave | Liverpool | 400 MEDALS |
| Eve | Liverpool | 600 MEDALS |
Total Pool: 2,000 MEDALS
Result: Man United win.
Settlement:
First, the platform takes a 5% fee from the total pool:
- Fee: 2,000 × 5% = 100 MEDALS
- Payout Pool: 2,000 − 100 = 1,900 MEDALS
Now the 1,900 MEDALS are split among the winners (Alice, Bob, Charlie) in proportion to their individual stakes relative to the total winning side.
The winning side staked a combined 1,000 MEDALS (500 + 300 + 200). Each winner receives their share of the 1,900 payout pool:
| Winner | Their Stake | Share of Winning Side | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alice | 500 | 50% | 950 MEDALS |
| Bob | 300 | 30% | 570 MEDALS |
| Charlie | 200 | 20% | 380 MEDALS |
What the winners gained:
- Alice staked 500, received 950 → +450 profit
- Bob staked 300, received 570 → +270 profit
- Charlie staked 200, received 380 → +180 profit
What the losers lost:
- Dave loses his 400 MEDALS stake
- Eve loses her 600 MEDALS stake
The more you stake relative to others on the winning side, the bigger your share of the payout. And the more that was staked on the losing side, the bigger the overall prize pool for winners.
Uneven Markets: When One Side Is Heavy
Not all predictions are evenly split. Often one side attracts far more MEDALS than the other.
The Prediction: Will Djokovic Win the French Open Final?
The Stakes:
| User | Outcome | Stake |
|---|---|---|
| Alice | Yes | 1,000 MEDALS |
| Bob | Yes | 800 MEDALS |
| Charlie | Yes | 700 MEDALS |
| Dave | Yes | 500 MEDALS |
| Eve | No | 200 MEDALS |
Total Pool: 3,200 MEDALS
Yes Side: 3,000 MEDALS (93.75%)
No Side: 200 MEDALS (6.25%)
Result: Djokovic does NOT win. Eve called it.
Settlement:
- Fee: 3,200 × 5% = 160 MEDALS
- Payout Pool: 3,040 MEDALS
Eve is the only winner. She staked 200 MEDALS and receives the entire 3,040 payout pool.
- Eve staked 200, received 3,040 → +2,840 profit
This is the power of going against the crowd. When one side is heavily backed, the minority side has massive upside if they're right. This is similar to how longer odds pay bigger returns in traditional betting — you're being rewarded for taking the less popular position.
Multiple Outcomes: More Than Two Sides
Some predictions have more than two possible outcomes, like a correct score or a group stage finish.
The Prediction: Premier League Top 4 — Who Finishes 4th?
Outcomes: Chelsea / Man United / Newcastle / Aston Villa
| User | Outcome | Stake |
|---|---|---|
| Alice | Chelsea | 300 MEDALS |
| Bob | Chelsea | 200 MEDALS |
| Charlie | Man United | 500 MEDALS |
| Dave | Newcastle | 400 MEDALS |
| Eve | Aston Villa | 100 MEDALS |
Total Pool: 1,500 MEDALS
Result: Chelsea finish 4th.
Settlement:
- Fee: 1,500 × 5% = 75 MEDALS
- Payout Pool: 1,425 MEDALS
Winners are Alice and Bob (both backed Chelsea). Their combined stake was 500 MEDALS.
| Winner | Their Stake | Share of Winning Side | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alice | 300 | 60% | 855 MEDALS |
| Bob | 200 | 40% | 570 MEDALS |
Charlie, Dave, and Eve all lose their stakes. The same proportional payout logic applies regardless of how many outcomes exist — only the correct outcome's backers share the pool.
Edge Cases: When the Rules Protect You
Most predictions settle cleanly with winners and losers. But sometimes the conditions for a fair market aren't met. Here's how SportsBlock handles those situations — and why.
The Solo Staker
Scenario: You stake 500 MEDALS on Man United to win. Nobody else stakes on any outcome. The match plays out, Man United lose.
In a standard settlement, your stake would be lost. But there was never a real market here — nobody took the other side. There were no opposing stakes, no pool to win, no genuine prediction market.
What happens: You get a full refund of your 500 MEDALS. No fees are taken. If there was never a real market, there's nothing to settle.
The One-Sided Market
Scenario: Eight users all stake on Liverpool to beat Southampton. Nobody stakes on Southampton or the draw. Liverpool win.
Everyone was right — but that's not really a prediction market. It's the same principle as the solo staker, just with more people. There was no opposing side, so there's no losing pool to distribute. All eight users backed the same outcome and there's nothing to pay them from.
What happens: Everyone gets a full refund. No fees taken. A market needs at least two sides to function. Whether it's one person or fifty, if all stakes land on the same outcome, no real market existed.
This also applies to losses — if all eight had staked on Liverpool and Southampton won, the same refund logic applies. There were no winners to pay, and the losers had no real opponents.
Nobody Called It
Scenario: A prediction has three possible outcomes. Users stake on Outcome A and Outcome B. The actual result is Outcome C — which nobody backed.
A real market existed (there were two opposing sides), but nobody predicted the correct winner. The settlement engine looks for backers of the winning outcome and finds none. There's nobody to pay.
What happens: Full refund to all stakers. If nobody was right, the fair thing is to return stakes rather than let them disappear into an empty pool. No fees are taken.
Key Principles
A few things to remember about how predictions work on SportsBlock:
Your risk is always capped at your stake. You can never lose more than what you put in.
Payouts are proportional. The more you stake relative to others on the winning side, the larger your share of the pool. But the total pool depends on how much was staked on the losing side.
Going against the crowd pays more. If you back the unpopular outcome and you're right, your returns are significantly higher. The prediction market naturally rewards contrarian thinking when it turns out to be correct.
No market, no fees. If a genuine two-sided market never formed — whether it's a solo staker, a one-sided market, or a result nobody predicted — you get your MEDALS back in full with no platform fee.
Every MEDAL is accounted for. The total pool (minus the platform fee) is always fully distributed to winners or refunded. Nothing disappears.
Try It Out
The best way to understand predictions is to jump in. Start small, stake a few MEDALS on an upcoming match, and watch the settlement play out.
Browse live predictions at sportsblock.app.
SportsBlock — Sports predictions powered by MEDALS tokens on the Hive blockchain.