We are just a few hours from the latest UFC pay-per-view of 299. In my mind this is a great card and is going to have some "barn burner" fights especially on the main card.
Here are my predictions but I strongly encourage you to remember that I have about a 50% success rate as far as my predictions are concerned and if you bet, to make up your own mind and not listen to me. I can't have that on my conscious and I have my biases to keep in mind as well!
In this matchup my money is on Petr Yan for the simple reason that he is in a slump after dropping the belt to Sterling via disqualification all that time ago when audiences weren't allowed at fights because of Covid. He has lost 4 of 5 since then and to many, this would be a sign that he is done. However, I see this as a man who was once a dominant champion with his back against the wall and realizing that with an "L" today that he will no longer appear on main cards. Yan is a light favorite in Vegas and I agree with their assessment. I believe that this fight will start very slow because they will be feeling one another out in the 1st round and perhaps even half of the second. Look for some dirty tactics of scoring a takedown in round 2 as a method of getting the judges on Yan's side.
In this one, I am actually going to go with the underdog in Gilbert Burns. I say this because of the fact that Burns is extremely strong and is much better than Jack is on the ground. Expect Burns to go for takedowns early and often and unless Jack has been working very hard on takedown defense this is where the fight is going to end up. I believe Burns excels on the ground and if he can get Jack there, he is going to achieve victory. The downside of this is that if and when this happens that it could end up being a very boring fight as Burns struggles for posturing on the ground. Hopefully that won't happen but when you have a guy who excels on the ground and an opponent who is aware of this, that is the way the fight can end up!
I really like Dustin Poirier and think he is one of the most likeable fighters in all of UFC particularly because of how he handled the dispute with Conor McGregor over the years. That being said, Dustin doesn't do so well against takedown artists like Saint Denis. According to UFC.com Poirer has a pretty terrible takedown defense percentage at just over 60%. This is why Poirier excelled against McGregor because Conor doesn't generally go for takedowns and prefers to stay on his feet. If Benoit is able to get him to the ground and keep Dustin there, I think "The Diamond" is going to be in deep trouble. This idea of mine is shared by many including Vegas who has DP as a +240 underdog and I presume this is specifically because of the reason I detailed above.
This is going to be an exciting main event because O'Malley hasn't lost very many times on his path to the Bantamweight championship. However, one of those losses has been at the hands of Marlon Vera who basically dominated "Suga" all the way back at UFC 252. Suffice to say O'Malley has improved a great deal since then though and he is loving being in the spotlight as much as he is. While Vera might think he can use the same strategy to defeat Sean this time around you can be assured that O'Malley's team has been working on what he did wrong in the first fight to ensure it doesn't happen again. I believe O'Malley's confidence is at an all time high and that he will leave Miami with the belt still around his waist. I also believe that Vera has been selected for this fight specifically because he is the only person to defeat O'Malley in UFC. Vera hasn't fought at all since August of 2023 and the fight he had before that vs Cody Sandhagen resulted in a loss for Vera. My money is on the champ in this one.
You may have noticed that I didn't talk about Kevin Holland vs. Michael Page. This is because that one is too close to call for me and I am just going to sit back and enjoy that one without having a favorite. That being said I would prefer to see Michael Page win because I think that Holland has a tendency to be a bit boring. This is all just spoken from my own preferences in a fight though.
Regardless of how it ends up I think today's main card is going to be fantastic and I am delighted that it is only a mere 3 hours away as of right now!
