Bitcoin won against BCH and Ethereum won against Ethereum Classic. If those are any indication, Steem will likely win against Hive. Which is a bit of a pity, IMO. Almost one year after your post, it certainly looks that way: the steem price is almost double that of Hive and it still feels like herding cats. We are pretty abysmal at marketing and promotion. This chain is a well designed system but good products don't sell themselves or else there will be no need for salespeople ...