BTC down before going up
- Current BTC Price
- Coinbase Article - Down FIRST, then 100K in 2026!
- The Rational Root. Halving Cycle and Price.
- How can I use this information?
- Ways to play this BTC price move.
Current BTC Price
BTC has been trading between 28K-30K recently. The most surprising thing is that BTC was under 18K a few months ago and has been up over 70% since its low.
Coinbase Article - Down FIRST, then 100K in 2026!
I love reading other views on BTC price prediction. Why? Many folks will try to explain their opinions using charts and looking at the last three "halving" patterns. Here is one from Cointelegraph.
The article uses data from Tim Peterson and a monthly heatmap. The chart says "2016-2023", but it's too small to see the text on the side.
But the pattern is what I BOXED in. If you notice, there aren't many GREEN or positive returns. It is mainly yellow, orange or red boxes. This suggests that the price will be going down from 30K --> to 25K or 20K.
Now the bullish part is coming here:
This is where I love how different people come up with their predictions. This one is based on a recent lowest price ($15K); the pattern suggests it is about 7.5X the LOW value.
This is how Peterson comes up with the 100K predictions by 2026.
The Rational Root. Halving Cycle and Price.
This chart is an exciting way to see BITCOIN's price on a LOG scale. The lines appear never to cross, which is a good sign of telling you it has support.
The BTC halving is coming up in April 2024, but the high generally happens within two years after the halving. So the key is understanding the "natural" cycles based on the last 3 events.
While the pattern might change, this is a good way to see what happened over the last 12 years.
How can I use this information?
If you know an asset has a 90% chance of being worth more in the future and with a chance of doubling, tripling or more.
- Example 1: 30K --> down to 25K --> up to 50K. 100% ROI
- Example 2: 30K --> down to 20K --> up to 50K. 150% ROI
- Example 6: 30K --> down to 20K --> up to 100K. 400% ROI
Formated in a chart:
What should I do?
Ways to play this BTC price move.
I will list some ideas that I have. Remember that this is not financial advice, and never invest based on a random stranger on the internet. You need to check with your planner and do your research.
Some Ideas:
- Buy using FIAT via Coinbase or other exchanges to on-ramp to BTC.
- Using LEAP (long-dated) CALL options. Some can be around $500 or $1000 per contract.
- Buy Riot Block Stock. Please do not use a Covered call on it!
Here is the data I found on RIOT website. Notice how the number of miners is going up. I think profits will follow if I believe BTC will hit $50K or more.
Regarding what you do, this is an exciting time to follow BTC and ETHER. The industry is more mature and has many risks and opportunities for investors. Most people would agree that investing in BITCOIN differs significantly from buying Coke or Exxon Shares. Those are all 100-year-old companies with dividend yields.
Have a profitable day!
Solving-Chaos!