UST had burning (conversion). That didn't save it either, so that's not a good argument.

With conversion at 75, that would be a hard-ish lower bound, but that isn't the same as a peg. This effectively forms a range (band), as we see with the upper conversion at 1.05. That doesn't mean HBD hits 1.05 and stays there. It usually trades in a range around 1.00 to 1.05 (can go a little above or below before market forces and conversions bring it back).

In terms of market forces, it would definitely make sense to buy at 75 because you're backstopped. And it could run to 1.05! What about buying at 76? Well, 1 cent risk, 29 cent upside, still not too bad, and until you get to 1.00, no new supply pushing it back down. So probably a pretty good bet. How about 77?

You're right though, it would work better if there were more sinks for HBD, beyond just not creating more. The only one right now is creating proposals for DHF, obviously that is very small.