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All I do is HODL until the end of this bull cycle at which time I will unload most of my liquid coins but keep a core forever HODL position.
Swing trading a bull market is a fool's errand. Just as you say, it is possible to lose big time. Also, there's taxes to be considered. The last thing I want is some accounting mess to sort come next year or missing out on getting into a lower tax bracket due to holding long enough.
RE: Even if Bitcoin were to drop to $20k, selling at $31k may not be the right move...