Thanks for the well reasoned analysis. I agree there seems to be an abundance of speculators on Hive and the increasing amount deposited on exchanges which you point out, is logical to avoid the power down delays to liquidity. I also agree with you that the lack of power ups and predominance of power downs also supports this.
I think you correctly point out while HIve has a large number of Apps and developers, we need that killer app that produces earnings like DeFi platforms similar to Cubfinance to incentivize locking up Hive in smart contracts, reduce the amount on exchanges, and increase it's scarcity to drive up price slowly and consistently. I am hoping for a CDP or AMM platform in the near future.