Last year, a group of experts from Stanford called "The One-Hundred Year Study of Artificial Intelligence" gave its forecast on how the world will change over the next 15 years. The forecast concerns 8 basic spheres of ability to live: transport, health, education, entertainment, employment, security, life / services and social sphere. The report is promised to be made annual, the adjustments will be made on the basis of a comparison of current and expected progress.
The year 2030 was chosen not by chance, according to AI100, by that time humanity will survive the main boom of introducing artificial intelligence into everyday life. After that, further development will rest on the social and physical resource, the ways of overcoming which can not yet be foreseen.
So, that's what changes are expected by us according to forecasts.
Transport
Modern vehicle control systems will be massively sold in 2-3 years, so by 2030, taking into account the reduction in their cost, it will be just as common as to see an electric car in the city today. As a result, this will not only lead to a reduction in accidents, but also to a change in the urban infrastructure - people will be able to live away from work, because the time spent on the road will not bring fatigue anymore - you can sleep, solve personal problems or have a quiet breakfast. The main question asked by the experts is: "How to regulate the legal field in the event of accidents involving human and AI?" It is unlikely that the manufacturers of these systems will assume all possible risks, while the owner will only be an ordinary user.
Healthcare
Already today there are systems of autonomous primary consultation. After 15 years, you no longer have to stand in lines, in order to set out all your symptoms in 5 minutes, and then get a standard list of treatment recommendations. Already after the patient will be able to make an appointment with the doctor in person for the assessment of the disease and for more in-depth diagnosis, if necessary. Let's be frank, only prejudices prevent effective use of such systems in 2017 everywhere, but economic and social factors must inevitably change this situation.
Education
Undoubtedly, the role of full-time education will fall, while online schools, universities, the MEP will only grow and develop. In order to increase the efficiency and credibility of remote platforms, leading providers of services (most of which are, in fact, top world universities) will have to resort to AI services. By analogy with healthcare, on the basis of differentiated tests, incoming and trainees will be enrolled in courses, divided into groups, deducted, transferred. In addition, it is expected that such systems will become less dependent on teachers in terms of information, because each of the students will receive the volume of theory that he is able to absorb at the moment.
And of course AI will play a key role in the re-profiling of those people who lost their jobs due to the introduction of AI.
Employment
And here we come to the main problem of the society of the future - a high level of unemployment. The tendency to reduce the cost of manual labor in comparison with the growth in the evaluation of intellectual capital and the requirements for it will lead to serious political, economic and social shifts. To maintain that standard of living that is available to the average person now, it will be extremely difficult. Therefore, either higher castes will have to become poorer (which is unlikely), or the number of unemployed and destitute will grow at a rapid pace. The result will be an increase in crime, the number of wars and local conflicts.
Security
Unmanned vehicles, systems for predicting behavior and face recognition will be used massively by law enforcement agencies and private organizations. This, on the one hand, will entail a growing role for the person in making important decisions, on the other - create a precedent when a person will need to entrust his life and safety to machines.
But the virtual space, despite the increased load, thanks to AI will become safer. Deeper implementation of technologies in the Internet will increase the effectiveness of the fight against pirates, hackers, automatically regulate access to multimedia resources, better search and submit information.
Entertainment
Another step in the fight against the growing discontent of the population will be the development of the video game industry. In this area AI is already developing at a crazy pace, but now it will be indirectly entrusted to the social function. Young people who can not find a job or get an education will take out their discontent before the screens of monitors, televisions, mobile devices. The fact that yesterday was a violation of social behavior, by 2030, will become the norm. Development will be supported at the highest level, e-sports will replace physical sport, and online services systems and cheap electronic devices will further distract people's attention from the growing crisis.
Social sphere
On the other hand, more people will have access to educational and information resources, dependence on location and social status will be reduced, which will provide an opportunity for more people to improve their well-being.
Modeling and forecasting systems will reach a new level; Natural disasters can be anticipated even earlier, social assistance targeted, urban infrastructure will develop more efficiently, statistical data will be based on a fundamentally larger sample.
Life / Services
Despite the described picture of the apocalypse, experts from the "AI100" are confident that the robots themselves will not make a significant leap in development. In 2030 for them, still a serious problem will be overcoming physical obstacles, such as stairs, curbs, pits, interaction with the outside world. Therefore, do not expect that after 15 years you will be able to come to a robot pizza supplier.
But what can be predicted with a high degree of probability - the dependence of people on online services, whether shopping, calling a taxi or buying tickets to the cinema, will reach such a level that another way of doing these activities, except with a mobile assistant with voice control, Will be difficult to imagine.
And what are your expectations of the future with AI?
