### Seems like BTC.D has a mind of its own [Back in November](https://peakd.com/hive-167922/@tobetada/btcd-on-track-for-lower-lows) it looked as if BTC.D was about to jump off a cliff just like in 2021. But then... nothing happened. Q4 of 2025 of course was a joke for Alts and we can clearly see that in the chart. Here is the one back in November with the projection. https://images.hive.blog/0x0/https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/tobetada/23xpW8JGSESdUuWjhQ4ut6a9raq9LM4fD8bvKRGWohtoqBdRsfzRAoWYFs2oy3Gp11uSR.png Here is an update. Clearly the ratio isn't "behaving" as most thought it would. ![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/tobetada/23x1YusCGwKtVAnqKJUVrFu6mdJCvCFssiCovejPxoVg19okuyKP7DT7nsJ3rF8N1Gkzv.png) So the question that comes up is: could we actually see a second peak before Alt season? That is if we ever actually get an Alt season... If so, we could see something like this. ![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/tobetada/23wgmaxmPSoV6QMpSXjk8KXqFPJYrrRsKm7fWZeRaT6UA354c5vjnXzVzf745NZVpZVj1.png) Interestingly, the uptrend wouldn't be that much more than what we had last time. It would be around 3.5 years instead of 3 years. After reaching around 64%, BTC.D would start to fall in late spring and really take a hit in late summer going down as low as 42%. This would be quite different to last time in which we saw the downtrend starting in winter. TBH a second peak like this does look like it could make "sense", but it's also clear that there isn't exactly a lot of data to make such an inference. The other option to consider is that we may not actually see a dramatic dip anytime soon. Perhaps BTC.D defies odds and just chugs along at current levels? ### Conclusion BTC.D is making it very clear that we haven't seen an Alt season so far. The fact that the ratio is hovering around 60% suggests that we may not see a dramatic dip anytime soon. If so, a second peak does seem reasonable before a real Alt season could develop. If so, the timing would be a bit off, but it would be even stranger to not see a big dip in the chart as well. --- *As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!* ![Bottom.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmaKSaCaesHvFXaRovU2pKpJX3pzguP2mgPZPLM8Ac1LQg/Bottom.jpg) ⛅🌦🌧🌦🌧🌨☁🌩🌦⛅🌧☁🌤🌥🌪🌧🌨🌩⛅🌦☁🌤🌥🌤⛅🌤⛅🌦⛅ ![lovetheclouds_community_banner.jpg](https://files.steempeak.com/file/steempeak/tobetada/8JQDzWCq-lovetheclouds_community_banner.jpg) ### **[Check out the Love The Clouds Community if you share the love for clouds!](https://peakd.com/c/hive-131609/created)** ⛅🌦🌧🌦🌧🌨☁🌩🌦⛅🌧☁🌤🌥🌪🌧🌨🌩⛅🌦☁🌤🌥🌤⛅🌤⛅🌦⛅ ![Bottom.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmaKSaCaesHvFXaRovU2pKpJX3pzguP2mgPZPLM8Ac1LQg/Bottom.jpg)

go to dog...