Time to brush up my TA skills. Been almost a decade since I got bored with the Philippine equity market and just parked my investments there. I think it's about time to get back to it, not because I expect the market to be exciting, but more so to get back into managing my portfolio better. If ever I get to maintain to analyze the market at least once a week, might as well then post a journal here for my notes. I don't intend to get back into daytrading, but rather just analyze through the index and some selected stocks in my portfolio.
My plan is to trade the market through Index Funds. Timing would be tricky since the fund prices for each trade will be computed at End-of-Day, so I'll just use the PSE index as indicator whenever I enter/exit.
The US National Elections has just recently finished and Trump won for his 2nd term. It's a good landmark event to start off my analysis . The PH market indeed dropped post-US election day but I don't think it has anything to do with whoever wins. With the PSEi reaching its 1 year peak around October, it shows it's already due for a correction. As soon as I looked into the chart, I knew it would be best to pullout my parked equity fund ASAP.
Unfortunately, by the time I saw it, there was only a small window of opportunity for me to pullout with confidence. This is especially since selling a fund means I have to estimate the fund's closing price during the day. It was 50/50 for the market to be up/down so I just chose to redeem half of my Equity Value Fund. As it turned out, that day was indeed the last chance to get out before my fund turns red again.
I'm a long term investor and may take some swing trades from time to time. Right now, I'd avoid buying and just wait until the correction settles. PSEi just breached below psychological support of 7k. Can go as low as 6200. MACD is below zero. Wait and see where is the nearest support and will reenter gradually on strength. This might take a month or so to see a more defined market bottom.
As they say, "Don't catch falling knives".
