Philippine elections happen every 3 years. The President and the Senate has a term of 6 years while local (provincial/city) officials only have a term of 3 years. Hence, in between we have what is called midterm elections for the change of guard of half the Senate and for the local government officials.
Social Weather Station (SWS) has been among the top survey firms in the country, known for its accuracy in election polls. Based on this report for the 2022 elections, the final survey they did matched 12 out of 12 elected Senators; correlation with official results is very strong at r = 0.976. Only slight difference in the ranking. This, considering the sample size was just only 1,440!
This is now their latest final survey for the 2025 midterm elections:
Relatively new to the field (started 2020), but I'd like to think they are more progressive especially in the use of digital technologies.
Regardless of the results, WR Numero was able to share a more dissected data that can give more insights. I particularly like this segment where they showed how the major islands + Metro Manila is inclined to vote.
What used to be "UniTeam" is now divided between Pro-Marcos and Pro-Duterte. On the Sidelines are the Liberals. What's interesting to see here is that the major regions/islands seem to vote in certain ways. I believe that there is this regionalistic mindset wherein people vote for candidates whom they think they can benefit from. Not really about how the nation as a whole can benefit from.
Former President Rodrigo Duterte was the first one coming from the South (Mindanao) which used to be dominated by candidates from Luzon. Hence, it is not a surprise that people from Mindanao show great support to Pro-Duterte candidates, especially in this time where he is in the Hague for trial. They feel more represented as compared to having a leader based in "Imperial Manila". I think this is what makes the clamor for a "Bisaya" leader still strong.
One thing noted here is that Imee Marcos, who pivoted to support the Dutertes, is not carried for by Mindanao. Even FBI fugitive Apollo Quiboloy receives great support in this island, mainly because the former President tells his followers to vote.
While Visayas may also be associated with the Dutertes, being "Bisaya", they don't necessarily follow all its orders. They seem to be fine with the administration-backed candidates. Even Bam Aquino from the Liberal party is being supported.
Bong Go is an outlier as he is widely recognized in all regions. His name is usually associated to the "Malasakit Center", which provides medical support to indigents. While governement support on this was not necessarily new, his program consolidated and streamlined it.
Only Bong Go is within the magic 12 here. Maybe Imee Marcos shouldn't have sided with the Dutertes, Luzon could've supported her more, especially being a Marcos.
The Capital, shows a bit more balanced selection, with 2 Liberals safe into the Magic 12.
In general, Marcos administration-backed candidates are faring better compared to the other parties. This is typical during Midterm elections given that the President needs ample support in the Senate to help push through priority projects.
It was mentioned that around 60% of the votes are coming from Luzon. As we see some contrasts between North (Luzon) and South (Mindanao), it would be interesting who will prevail during the actual elections.
The results do not look encouraging though. If you browse through the list, most of the top candidates are propelled through their media mileage (actor/actresses, returnee Senators, TV Journalists, prominent families).
I just hope that everyone gets reminded to vote for the more competent people. For Senate and Congress, it's important to pick someone who can better represent the people by making meaningful laws.
