Why does everything seem obvious once everything has happened?
Man by nature tends to behave in a way under a context in which his behavior can be analyzed under what is called hindsight bias, i.e. the way in which the individual directs his paths towards some complex ways of understanding some situations.
It is important in psychology to study the hindsight bias, since the hindsight bias can function as a psychological mechanism that each person can use to determine how conscious some people are compared to others.
In order to analyze a little about this psychological behavior associated with hindsight bias, it is important to conceptualize the way in which we can understand what hindsight bias is, so I am going to share my point of view.
Conceptualization of hindsight bias
We analyze the two meanings separately, bias is the orientation or direction taken by a certain element, while the meaning of the word retrospective refers to some event in the past.
It is important to break down these two words with the intention that each one of us can draw our own conclusions based on this conceptualization process, so we can say that retrospective bias is the direction given to the interpretation of a past event, taking into account that this interpretation can probably be more erroneous than accurate.
When analyzing this concept attached to a deviation of human behavior is where psychology enters to be its participation, seen from the point of view of psychology the hindsight bias is studied as a deviation of the human cognitive process, under which any human individual can consider an event that has already occurred as much easier to guess, that is to say that a person suffering from this deviation will always ensure that it has been possible to avoid a certain event but when he already knows what happened, when the reality is that it was very difficult to predict.
I would like to close this analysis with the following example:
We all know how unpredictable is the behavior of cryptocurrencies, and although there are experts in performing graphical analysis to predict their behavior, it is quite difficult to decipher what can happen, then there may be people who without knowing anything about graphical analysis and without knowing anything about these technical analysis, after a cryptocurrency has gone down or up end up saying: I knew it was going down, when we all know that despite all the efforts for an ordinary person is difficult to predict this behavior.
I believe that hindsight bias is harmful because it makes many people not very humble in telling the truth, it would be advisable to assume sincere and honest positions such as: "I really did not know that this or that event was going to happen", but why state that a certain event was going to happen knowing the results of the event because we already know that it has happened.