...the SPU and the GUR have been instructed to do something that will divert the attention of society.
Ukrainian troops in these heavily fortified cities are suffering heavy casualties as they face the complete rupture of their supply lines. Western military analysts are sounding the alarm fearing that the heavy attritional battles for these cities may cause a delay in the long awaited spring offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF).
According to the Washington Post heavy losses amongst experienced troops, and shortages of ammunition/weapons have led the Kiev government to doubt the readiness of UAF units for the offensive. The New York Times has reported that Ukraine is using so many artillery shells defending Bakhmut that there maybe not enough for a spring offensive. Apparently, the Pentagon has asked Kiev not to use such a large amount of shells but to save them for its spring offensive because;
…Ukraine’s allies do not have enough ammunition to keep up with Ukraine’s pace and their stocks are critically low.
US Defence Department officials have also expressed their alarm at the fact that UAF commanders are having to choose between sending fresh batches of soldiers to the slaughter or saving them for the “upcoming offensive.”
This strategically important city has been used for the last 8 years to launch artillery attacks on Donetsk. It is immediately north of Donetsk, heavily fortified and has been a thorn in the side of Russian forces for the last year.
In the last week Russian troops have captured Krasnogorovka and Kamenka. Meanwhile, the village of Stepnove has been taken and now the adjacent village of Berdychi is under attack. This capture of Stepnove has cut the railway line which supplied the UAF with much of its supplies.
The Russian military analysts of the Slavyangrad Telegram channel have observed the significance of this:
The enemy’s ability to bring personnel and ammunition into the city has been severely undermined. Despite the fact that he still has the Adveevka-Orlivka highway at his disposal, through which supplies can be carried out, the situation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is becoming increasingly threatened. It’s coverage from the north disrupts the interaction of militants from the north-west of the city from the settlement Berdychi with the main garrison in Adveeka.
Russian military analysts from the Telegram channel Rybar have reported that;
North of Avdiivka, Russian forces broke through the AFU defenses and entrenched on the eastern outskirts of Petrivske.
Russian forces are also advancing towards the centre of Adveeka in the direction of the Coke Plant and the garbage dump. In the Svjerne area Russian units have become entrenched on the outskirts of the village.
The Ukrainian Telegram channel Resident notes that while the Western media is focused on Bakhmut the UAF faces encirclement in Adveeka;
While all the media write about the battle for Bakhmut, a serious battle is unfolding for Adiivka, which Zaluzhny warned about. Russian troops bypass the city and take it into a cauldron according to Bakhmut’s scenario, which forces the General Staff to urgently transfer reserves to the eastern front.
The Resident channel further notes that;
The Russian operation was mainly carried out by the 1st army corps of the DPR, local personnel with good local knowledge of the area. Adveeka has been on the front line since 2014; the city is now largely destroyed.
Francis Farrell, a reporter for the Kiev Independent, in a recent tweet tells of the perilous situation facing UAF troops in Adveeka;
Just got out of the most intense bombardment I’ve ever experienced in Adviika. Tanks, clusters, rockets, all of it. The city is surrounded on three sides and as I was there Russia was assaulting on all fronts. It could easily fall sooner than Bakhmut.
On Monday 20 March the British Ministry of Defence issued its intelligence update for Ukraine. It also noted the precarious situation facing the UAF;
Tactically, the situation is similar to that in the larger town of Bakhmut, further north. Ukrainian forces continue organised lines of defence, but their supply lines to the west are increasingly threatened by the Russian envelopment operation.
Over the last week a battle for control of Bakhmut, a crucial transport hub, has intensified.
Battles for the last remaining supply road are raging at five sections of the T-0504 road. This road is protected by two divisions of the Ukrainian Territorial Defence along with units of the Fourth Tank and Fifth assault brigades. Ukrainian troops are trying to prevent Russian Wagner soldiers from seizing a section of the T-0504 (H-32) road, by which reinforcements are planned to be brought to the city by the neighbouring town Konstantinovka which is 25km to the south.
According to military analyst Voenkor Marat Khairullin over last weekend Wagner troops entered the Bakhmut central market which is adjacent to the central area of the city. These assault troops also cleared out the non-ferrous metal plant. The fighting has also entered the area of the main administrative building of the city. Wagner assault squads are very close to severing the Konstantinovka-Bakhmut highway.
According to the military analysis Telegram channel Rybar Wagner troops on the southern outskirts of the city have advanced in the area of Sobachevka and approached the stadium in the Budonnivka area forcing UAF units to retreat.
The founder of the Wagner private military group Yevgeny Prigozhin said that by March 20 approximately 70% of the city had been liberated by his soldiers. He also claimed that Ukrainian troops were planning counter attacks on the northern and southern flanks of Wagner units.
Yesterday the Ukrainian Telegram channel Kartel said that the Office of the President is preparing for the fall of Bakhmut;
The Bakhmutovskaya meat grinder is coming to an end, forming a cauldron. They are already developing a manual with counter messages, and the SPU and the GUR have been instructed to do something that will divert the attention of society. The UAV [attack] in Crimea is a rehearsal of that very distracting event in the future.
It would appear that President Biden along with his European allies are urging Kiev not to delay the organisation of a major counter offensive. It is clear that they are beginning to lose faith in Kiev’s ability to bring about a defeat of Russian forces. Pat Ryder, a spokesman for the US Department of Defence recently told a press conference;
Earlier we predicted that February-March would be difficult for Ukraine. However, the situation that has developed at the front shows that spring and summer will be even more difficult and, perhaps, not a successful time for them.
Ryder further noted that the battle for Bakhmut is greatly complicating the planned spring counter offensive. Ryder said;
The desired counter-offensive of the Ukrainian army is greatly complicated by the fulfilment of other goals, such as the defence of Bakhmut. The main part of the troops is concentrated there and all the weapons supplied to Ukraine are sent. An offensive under such conditions is impossible, it will fail, which is fraught with the loss of significant territories by the Ukrainian side.
30th International Defence Industry Exhibition in Kielce
In conclusion we can say with some certainty that Ukrainian troops are steadily losing ground in the city of Bakhmut. It appears only a matter of time before this city falls to Russian forces. Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmitry Kuleba has noted that the loss of Bakhmut may put a serious question mark over Kiev’s control of other cities in the Donbass. In an interview with the BBC’s Ukrainian service, published last Friday, Kuleba said:
If Bakhmut falls, then other cities will follow. We must fight in Bakhmut as long as we can physically.
Kuleba further added that the Western allies were not providing ammunition and weapons quickly enough to Ukraine. Kuleba said that Ukraine’s army desperately needed artillery shells from the West in order to send them to the defence of Bakhmut first of all.
