Since August of last year Russian forces have been attacking the Ukrainian garrison stationed in the city of Bakhmut. In recent days it appears Russian units attacking from the north and south of the city have made numerous advances leaving the Ukrainian garrison with only one supply route left, the one leading into Chasov Yar to the north-west of Bakhmut. All the other supply routes into the city are under physical control of Russian forces or under their fire control.
Operational encirclement followed by the destruction, flight or surrender of the large body of Ukrainian troops in the city.
Don’t take my word for this. The British Ministry of Defence admitted in a recent briefing that Bakhmut was “increasingly isolated” and that the two main supply routes for the Ukrainian garrison were under the fire control of Russian artillery. Meanwhile, the Guardian, a pro-Ukrainian newspaper, has acknowledged that Moscow’s armies are close to “enveloping the largely deserted city” the battle for which is “entering its endgame.”
Many military analysts have called the battle for Bakhmut a ‘meat grinder’, due to the heavy casualties suffered by the Ukrainian forces defending the city. This is due to the fact that large numbers of raw recruits who have little training are being poured into the defence of the city against the highly experienced soldiers of the Russian private military Wagner group. Several Ukrainian sources indicate that these raw recruits have a battlefield life of four hours of combat.
Rybar, a military analysis channel on Telegram which is widely cited in the West, has reported numerous advances of Russian forces which are attacking Bakhmut from three different directions. Russian troops have reached the outskirts of Krasnoe to the west of Bakhmut leaving the M0-3 road west to Chasov Yar and Konstantinovka close to being physically cut off. Latest reports indicate this settlement has been bypassed and taken into semi-encirclement.
In the city itself there is a slow advance by Wagner troops with bloody street fighting for every house and building. According to Evgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner military group, Ukrainian troops are putting up stubborn resistance as they make a fighting withdrawal towards the western part of the city. He stated a few days ago;
I’m clarifying the situation. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are fighting to the last. In the northern quarters of Aremovsk, there are fierce battles for every street, every house, every stairwell.
Yesterday an overnight assault by Wagner forces made substantial progress into southern Bakhmut advancing the front line around a kilometre. This built upon the earlier success around the Mariupolskoye cemetery.
Russian units to the north of Bakhmut have made a significant advance entering northern districts and leaving the Ukrainian garrison in a semi circle of opposing forces. Notably, Wagner troops have entered the railway station of Stupki in the north of the city.
Besides this, the attack from the north is involving heavy fighting for Paraskovievka and Krasnaya Gore. According to Russian military analyst, Boris Rozhin, once these two settlements fall then;
...the armed forces of Ukraine in Artrmovsk (Bakhmut) will have very dark days (as their last supply line will be cut), therefore there is no retreat (by Kiev’s troops).
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President Zelensky has repeatedly stated how essential it is for Ukraine to keep hold of Bakhmut and therefore he will not be ordering any retreat from the city despite the very heavy losses suffered by his army.
On the 5th of February Politico carried an article noting that growing numbers of raw recruits are abandoning their positions in the front lines due to grave shortages of ammunition and fresh reinforcements. One Ukrainian officer said:
Sometimes leaving positions is the only way to save personnel from needless death. When you sit in the trenches for days without sleep or rest, your combat value is reduced to zero.
The same article noted that the Ukrainian government is introducing harsh new penalties for those who desert their posts in the face of public opposition to these new measures.
As the situation for Ukrainian troops gets worse by the hour the high command of Kiev’s armed forces are sending reinforcements to Chasov Yar, a key logistics hub for the supply of the Bakhmut garrison, and additional defensive lines are being prepared in Konstantinovka.
As if this was not bad enough for Kiev, Russian forces are making headway in their assault on the city of Ugledar and are advancing towards the city of Seversk from three different directions. Further north, near Kupanyansk, units from the Russian armed forces have captured Dvurechnoye and Gryanikovka and are close to taking Belogorovka. There are also currently unconfirmed reports coming in of the capture of Sin’ovka in the direction of the Oskol river.
The operational encirclement of Bakhmut leaves President Zelensky with some difficult choices. If he persist with his current no retreat policy then the large garrison in Bakhmut are facing the invidious choice: either face destruction or surrender.
The military analysts of the Slavyangrad Telegram channel have observed the disastrous consequences for Ukraine if its forces are defeated at Bakhmut:
But there is still no order for the final abandonment of the city (although the most combat ready units have already been withdrawn). And this gives our army a unique chance to inflict a defeat on the enemy, which can largely determine the outcome of the upcoming battles.
And then the time will come for the main blow of the RF Armed Forces, which has not yet been delivered. And if this strike turns out to be successful (and which the Western military expects over the next week or two) then the Armed Forces of Ukraine can completely forget about the offensive in the spring.
It would appear that the battle for Bakhmut may soon come to a climax with the capture of the city by Russian forces. Let us hope that the High Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine give the order to retreat in order to avoid mass casualties amongst its soldiers most of whom were civilians not so long ago.
