Until recently I’ve shied away from news about the Ukraine war. When the Crimea voted to join Russia in 2014 it was unsurprising because I had been following the events of the Maidan coup closely. This time I was taken by surprise because I hadn’t been following the conflict closely. It was one issue on my distant radar (the fighting in the Donbass that is), as well as fighting in Syria and Yemen. Plus not to mention the situation in Ethiopia, and other conflict points around the world.
Then, with one conversation, I realised that I couldn’t remain ignorant of what’s going on anymore. So I did my own research and what I found out was appalling. Once again, we are being lied to people, on an epic scale.
Public Domain
I was uninformed as to the steps to war, especially in the days leading up to war and how it was Zelensky who could have avoided it. I didn’t follow the daily battleground reports so I couldn’t see how directly they reflected Putin’s stated aims. I did, however, know that there are neo-Nazi groupings fighting in the Ukrainian armed forces (UAF) such as the Azov, Aidar and Donetsk battalions.
The Azov battalion, for example, doesn’t want to hide in the shadows. We have this amazing resource called the internet. Like the invention of the printing press the internet is revolutionising our access to information in our world. I feel a duty to get the truth out there. A primary source for me has been the piece by Jaques Baud which has been shared by the likes of John Pilger.
For starters, the lead up to the invasion in hind sight can be traced as a series of steps.
Just after the Minsk Peace Accord One was signed, President Poroshenko launched a massive anti-terrorist operation against the Russian speaking people of the Donbass. A crushing defeat for the Ukrainian army in the winter of 2014-15 led to Minsk Two. Following this, the army was in a dire state and young Ukrainians left the country in droves to avoid military service. This led Ukraine to resort to mercenaries. According to Reuters in an article entitle [On the edge of war](https://graphics.reuters.com/RUSSIA-UKRAINE/dwpkrkwkgvm/ mercenaries constituted 40% of the armed forces in 2020.
Hundreds of millions of dollars worth of weaponry has been poured into Ukraine where it has then been sent down to the Donbass region to attack the Russian speaking population of Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR). The DPR/LPR have suffered over 14,000 dead between 2014 to 2022. A fact consistently ignored by Western politicians and media.
We should recall that Zelensky was elected President on a promise to end the war in the Donbass region. Of course, once in office he made no attempt to implement the two Minsk Peace Accords. Instead, he succumbed to the wills of his US handlers and the ultra nationalist forces in Kiev and set about the recapture of Crimea and the territory of the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk.
Large numbers of Ukrainian forces were deployed to the south. At the same time, NATO exercises were being carried out along Russia’s border. Russia then carried out counter exercises.
November 2021 saw the end of the Russian ZAPAD 21 exercises which were interpreted by the West as being a build up to invasion and they began running invasion playbooks.. Meanwhile, in violation of Minsk Two, Ukraine was carrying out daily artillery strikes in the Donbass. Its heavy weaponry was meant to be in storage but OSCE reports proved that this was not the case.
In January, Polish saboteurs were intercepted before they could create a chemical incidence in Gorlivka.
On February 7 2022 Macron reaffirmed to Putin his commitment to Minsk Two, and did the same with Zelensky the following day. However, Zelensky still refused to apply the Minsk Agreements. On the same day, Feb 8, President Biden announces that the Nord Stream Two gas pipeline will be canceled if Russia invades.
There followed an increased build up of Ukrainian troops along the contact line separating the DPR/LPR from the rest of Ukraine. The daily reports produced by OSCE military observers confirm this increased military activity which was and still is ignored by the Western media.
On February 15 the Russian parliament called for Putin to recognise Lugansk and Donetsk Republics - which he refuses to do. On the 16th shelling of the DPR increases dramatically with189 ceasefire violations in the Donetsk region.
Next day there were 222 ceasefire violations in the Donestsk region, of which 135 were explosions. In the centre of Donetsk city, which is in DPR territory, there were 20 artillery explosions recorded by OSCE observers and I6 explosions were recorded in the government-controlled territory of Kamianka, which is 20 km north of the city of Donetsk.
Meanwhile, on 16 February there were 402 ceasefire violations in the Lugansk region. Next day there were 648 ceasefire violations in this region, of which 519 were explosions. During the morning of 16 February between 9.10 and 12.29 there were 156 explosions in Pervomaisk which is in LPR controlled territory that is 63km west of the city of Lugansk.
Throughout the day in the government-controlled territory of Stanytsia Luhanska, which is 16 km north east of Lugansk there were 74 explosions recorded by OSCE observers.
On the 17th February President Biden announced that Russia was going to invade imminently. The Western media talked about Putin expecting to be in Kiev by teatime.
Putin took the decision to invade having warned Zelensky to stop the heavy shelling of Donetsk and Lugansk. Of course, Zelensky ignored this warning as his US handlers wanted Russia to fall for the US prepared provocation. Documents have subsequently been found that support the view that Ukraine was preparing to attack the Donbass with a force of over 100,000 soldiers.
Once the Russian invasion began the Western media/politicians all screamed that Putin was trying to take the Ukrainian capital Kiev. I don’t believe this was ever the objective of the Russian armed forces. Although its probable they probed for weakness, the forces around Kiev were mostly designed as a feint to tie down large numbers of Ukrainian units, while the real battles were going on in the Donbass.
Now, the Russian campaign has been far from text book and several generals have been canned already. Some basic mistakes, such as sending lightly armed reconnaissance units into large cities like Kharkov where they suffered heavy casualties, were made. The case can be made that Putin did not expect such determined resistance.
What we can see clearly though, is that the military action on the ground reflects the stated military objective to ‘liberate’ the Donbass region and destroy the military infrastructure of the Ukrainian armed forces.
The bulk of Ukraine’s troops (UAF) lie in the south which can only be understood in the context of the war that has been waged against the people of the Donbass region, where nearly 14,000 people have been killed in the last eight years. By the beginning of March, Russian forces had created a cauldron (ie. surrounded) these southern forces of the UAF. They are the real target and should be the focus of any examination/understanding of events.
For the rest of March Russia was tightening it’s noose. Meanwhile the Western press shouted “Putin defeat only a matter of time”!
Fighting in cities is always more difficult due to civilians. That Russian forces are indiscriminately bombing in civilian areas with no concern for civilian lives is a massive lie.
However, in this war everyone from 16 to 60 has been classified by the Ukrainian government as a combatant. Aid to Ukraine (in part) ends in the handing out of arms to anyone who asks for them and declares themselves willing to fight for the defence of the Ukraine. An abundance of unregulated arms, given to untrained citizens, with complete lack of oversight. What could possibly go wrong?
Meanwhile, the stated political objective of Russia’s invasion is to denazify the country and eliminate the existence of several neo-nazi groupings and other far right fanatics who are a core part of the volunteers, armed forces and mercenary units of the UAF. These include the Azhov, Aidar, Donbass and other neo-Nazi military units which is being covered up in the West.
Russia has created humanitarian corridors for people to leave these cities in order to operate more easily and avoid civilian casualties. It appears from numerous testimonies of people who have managed to escape from these cities that is has been the far right militias who have been stopping people from leaving. Why? To use as human shields or/and to raise the civilian death toll to encourage further foreign involvement.
A core part of the Ukrainian troops defending Mariupol are the Azov battalion. There is an abundance of photographic/video evidence provided by Mariupol residents to show how these troops were firing from areas adjacent to civilian housing throughout the city.
On March 7 residents reported that the maternity hospital in Mariupol was evacuated and a firing post set up inside the facility. On March 9 the hospital was shelled by Russian forces and there was huge outcry by Western media and governments.
On the back of this hospital bombing Zelensky calls for a no-fly zone. Such a no fly zone would involve shooting down Russian military aviation. Bringing us all one step closer to WW3.
Believing Kiev to be the objective of Russia's military campaign has caused Western commentators to conclude that Russia is losing this war. This is completely preposterous and based on a willful misunderstanding of Russia’s strategic battle plan.
As in Syria, the Russian army is dividing Ukrainian resistance into pockets which can then be more easily captured. The success that Russia is having can be seen in the surrender of thousands of UAF soldiers. The largest surrender so far is that of a thousand marines in Mariupol on 13 April.
The taking of the Illicha factory in Mariupol can be regarded as having been major milestone in the Russian ‘liberation’ of the city. Now only the Azov led units in the Azovstal steel factory remain to be mopped up.
Naturally the West is accusing Russia of committing genocide and other war crimes while ignoring the use of civilians as human shields across the Donbass and the constant shelling of civilian settlements in Donetsk by the UAF. The daily video reports from the front lines, produced by American journalist Patrick Lancaster, provide plenty of evidence of war crimes committed by the Ukrainian army in both Donetsk and Mariupol.
There is also the cases of torture and murder of Russian prisoners of war. There is the case of the video that is confirmed by the New York Times showing Ukrainian soldiers shooting Russian prisoners in the knes in the Kharkov area. There are other stories of the execution of Russian prisoners of war.
Now we have the accusations of massacres such as the one at Bucha outside Kiev. It is already on Wikipedia listed as a Russian war crime, before any investigation has even been made that is.
Scott Ritter, former weapons inspector for the UN, believes this massacre was carried out by Ukrainian National Police (at Bucha). Those wearing white arm bands and in receipt of Russian rations were being treated as Russian collaborators and murdered. The question was asked by these UAF troops to execute ‘Russian collaborators’, and permission to shoot was given by Kiev.
The Ukrainians have motive here because they are losing and they have become desperate.
Over the next few weeks we will see the decisive battles taking place in the Donbass region. Several sources indicate that the Russian/DPR/LPR offensive is imminent, if not already started.
The objective of the upcoming offensive is clear: destroy the largest and most experienced battle groups of the UAF. Once these battle groups are destroyed or forced to surrender then maybe serious ceasefire negotiations can begin. The UAF battle groups are heavily supported by large quantities of NATO weapons and US satellite intelligence and will put up considerable resistance. The events of the next month will be decisive in determining the outcome of the current war which has inflicted great misery and suffering on civilians of both sides of the conflict.
Main sources
Jaques Baud -The Postil Magazine
John Pilger
Patrick Lancaster - telegram
Maximilian Clarke - telegram
Alexander Mercouris - YouTube
Colonel Cassad Blog
Footnote
If you want to keep up to date with military developments in the Donbass then the following sites/sources are highly recommended:
SouthFront.org
Vineyard of the Saker – Daily SitRep Bulletins
Colonel Cassad military blog
