As Ukraine’s summer offensive petered out into complete failure it became increasingly difficult for the Western media to shill the war and claim that Russia was losing on the battlefield.
Now the narrative has shifted to one of orchestrated propaganda, in outlets across the US and EU, that Russia has plans to invade and conquer Europe in the future once it has crushed Ukraine. Therefore, NATO must step its funding of defence spending to prepare for a future conflict with Russia.
This type of hysterical narrative, unfounded in any reality regarding Russian intentions, is symptomatic of empires in decline. The Western media can talk all they like about preparations for 'containing' alleged Russian plans for expansion into Europe in the future but it is all complete BS.
The German military recently admitted that its army would run out of ammunition in any conflict with Russia in only two days! The UK has made the same admission in the last year.
The UK serves as a good example of the irretrievable decline of the military might of the West. At the end of the Cold War in 1990 the UK army was 153,000 strong and now it is below 80,000 and set to shrink further during the 2020s. The UK, as is the case with the EU/US, let it’s military- industrial base decline after the end of the Cold War.
Following the Cold War the collective West became immersed in fighting much weaker opponents incapable of any kind of meaningful resistance. Iraq Wars 1 and 2 serve as good examples of this. This further reinforced the West letting its military industrial base shrink as they became focused on fighting counter-insurgency wars in Iraq and Afghanistan failing miserably in both cases.
The UK’s ruling class have been fine with turning their country into a rentier/service economy with all of its public services privatised and reliant on cheap labour and long working hours. Productivity remains at historic lows as is the case in most of the EU.
The de-industrialisation of Germany should be a major cause of concern as without it the EU is going to struggle once money from Berlin stops flowing to keep the whole show on the road.
The US ruling class is in turmoil with its political representatives at each others throats with no perspective for healing the very deep divisions within its society. See the many pieces in the 'liberal' pro Democrat media from Washington Post to the New York Times full of hysteria about the possibility of Trump winning the next presidential election.
The thing that concerns me is that empires in decline don't go down without a fight and that is when they can be at their most dangerous when they become increasingly desperate to maintain their hegemony.
The most likely outcome in the Ukraine war is Russia breaking the back of the AFU in 2024, similar to what the Red Army did to the German Army Group Centre with Operation Bagration in the summer of 1944.
Let’s face it Russia is unlikely to let the conflict be frozen giving the US time to try to re-arm Ukraine yet again. From the destruction of the AFU in the field there follows a quick collapse leading to the total capitulation of the Kiev dictatorship. Then the massive bloodletting of Ukrainian manpower can come to an end and Ukraine can become a neutral nation. This will give Moscow the security it craves and bring this dangerous destabilising conflict to an end.
