China recently imposed further controls on the export of critical rare earth metals and banned their export for American arms companies. This one measure alone has the capacity to cripple the American war machine and severely undermine its capacity for attacking other nations. Not surprisingly, the Trump regime has reacted with incandescent fury to this measure which makes the world a safer place.
In the 21st century American imperialism has been involved in over 21 military conflicts according to Wikipedia. Currently, the US is involved in 7 publicly known military engagements from Venezuela and Yemen to the proxy war it is fighting against Russia in Ukraine.
As if this wasn’t enough, the American empire is mobilising its military resources and economic power to try prevent the emergence of China as the next global superpower. The late John Pilger in his film, The Coming War On China, explained how the US was surrounding China with military bases in anticipation of a future war with Beijing. In decline the empire sees the irreversible rise of China as an existential threat to its dominant position within the global financial system.
In his first term of office Trump launched an ineffective trade war against Beijing which failed to stop the continuing development of China. Since then it has gone on to become the workshop of the world with a dominant position within numerous supply chains and industries of global importance.
Now in his second term, Trump has resorted to the same old play book in the mistaken belief that the irreversible decline of the US, both economically and militarily, can be halted. However Trump’s new economic war on China won’t restore the hegemonic position which the US once held over the global economy.
Of course, this doomed attempt to prevent the economic development of China is nothing new. The ‘pivot to China’ began under the Obama regime. The American ruling class took the decision that it needed to move its military might to South East Asia in anticipation of a future military conflict with Beijing. Under both Trump term 1 and Biden the United States has resorted to a plethora of measures to try arrest the continuing growth of the Chinese economy, especially in hi-tech sectors such as semi conductor chips and AI technology.
Although, instead of arresting its economic development, the economic embargo waged by Washington has driven a wave of accelerated innovation to the point where in key areas such as AI China is “nanoseconds behind the US’’ according to Jensen Hwang the CEO of Nvidia. China has also successfully built up its own semi conductor industry to the point where it has almost caught up with its western counter parts.
As soon as he was sworn in, Trump made it clear that he had China in his gun sights. In April he launched trade war 2.0 against China by instituting 145% tariffs on Chinese exports to the US. This has been accompanied by almost weekly announcements about further restrictions on the export of hi-tech products such as semi conductors to China. Of course, Taco Don was forced to make some concessions following the major sell of in US stock and bond markets which accompanied the ‘liberation day’ tariffs.
Since then, the Trump regime has displayed a carrot and stick policy towards China: attacking it almost constantly while claiming it wants deals with China provided China was ‘reasonable’ and amendable to American demands.
A series of recent attacks on Chinese interests from trying to undermine its global shipping fleet, which is now subject to heavy port taxes when entering US ports, to placing thousands of Chinese companies on export blacklists, has forced Beijing’s hand before the much anticipated meeting of Trump with President Xi at the end of this month.
China has added five rare earth metals (REEs) to its list of 12 minerals which will be no longer be sold to US or NATO weapons manufacturers. Along with this were export controls on the sale of refining and processing technologies and super hard materials such as synthetic diamonds.
Take just one REE as an example of the potentially devastating impact on the US war machine. Neodymium creates the strongest known permanent magnets for guidance systems used in missile fin control, drone propellers, and in the steering systems of tanks and other vehicles as well as the electric motors of warships and submarines. It is also critical for various electric systems in fighter jets and bombers such as the F35 and B2.
Back in 2016 a Congressional Research Service report sounded the alarm on the dependence of the US military industrial complex on supplies of rare earth metals from China – Rare Earth Elements in National Defence: Background, Oversight Issues, and Potential Options for Congress. Below is a summary of weapon systems that rely on REEs:
China’s actions put a huge block on the further production of these weapons by both the US and its allies in Europe and Asia. The concentration of both mining and refining in China is considered a major strategic vulnerability. This was highlighted during the 2010 rare earth crisis when China restricted exports, causing massive price spikes and panic among arms manufacturers.
The US proxy war in Ukraine and its participation in the Israeli genocide in Gaza has run down critical stocks of its key armaments from 155mm artillery shells, stinger and javelin missiles to rockets for multiple rocket launch systems such as HIMARS. For example, the Pentagon has publicly admitted that it has sent over 2 million 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine drawing US stocks down to critical levels causing concern that it would not be able to last long in any open conflict with China or Russia.
Raytheon has admitted that it would take many years to replenish stocks of stinger and javelin missiles due to the massive shipments to Ukraine during 2022-2023. In the recent 12 day war with Iran the Israeli regime was forced to agree to a ceasefire due to a critical shortage of missile interceptors which its American sponsor was running short of.
Analysis from think tanks such as the Rand corporation and CSIS, which are Pentagon funded, reveals the Achilles heel of the US military industrial complex which is designed for maximum profitability. This short termist turbo charged approach to profit has led to a huge decline in weapons production. The US is no longer geared up to fight a war with a near peer competitor such as China or Russia but short lived expeditions such as the Iraq War of 2003.
China’s rare earth controls have hit a critical vulnerability of the US war machine. If they are continued for any length of time then production costs will rise dramatically and there will be production cuts. This will undoubtedly affect American plans for future military interventions such as an attack on Venezuela, where the US has gathered a war fleet close by, and the next attack on Iran which the IDF has repeatedly warned is on the horizon.
