The silence from all the "I'm just reading the charts bro" dudes is pretty deafening, especially on twitter.
My underlying theory is that everything was, is, and will forever be shaped by the environment. Always.
For example, in the summer it tends to be hot and in the winter it tends to be cold. That's not to say there can't be relatively cool days in the summer or relatively nice/sunny days in the winter ---- but it still tends to be hot in the sumer and cold in the winter.
In early 2021, we were clearly in a risk-on environment, Things always boom in the short-term when governments around the world print a fuckton of money. Basically everything was pumping to some degree or another.
In early 2025, a tradewar started. It doesn't take a rocket engineer to figure out that this creates a risk-off environment. Even in econ 101 you learn about supply/demand curves and deadweight loss. Tariffs always have, still do, and always will create deadweight loss. You can draw it on a supply/demand curve. Combine that with the fact that we don't have QE yet, and there is no reason to see risk-on assets pump. NONE.
There will come a time when (1) the Fed is doing QE, and (2) all the gay bears are like "nah no way this is the bottom" like they were in mid 2022. That's when it will be a good time to start buying again.
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