I don't see a multi-year recession.If we have a recession, the Fed will quickly start the money printers (this is actually what I'm waiting for, QE). I'll be bullish next year, not bearish.
The main issues are long-term in nature.
(1) Gay government: The number of people directly or indirectly employed by the government in the US is more than 50% at this point. That's unsustainable. When literally half the people out there are parasites, you're bound to get the same basic problems that communist countries face. Declining living standards and rising prices. During a recession, the government employs even MORE people (directly and indirectly), and so the situation becomes even more unsustainable.
(2) Debt levels: This is both private debt and public debt. This is both the current debt and unfunded liabilities. Debt levels didn't matter from 1980-2020 because interest rates were falling. But we are now in a supercycle of generally rising interest rates (like 1945-1980), where debt quickly starts to matter. It's not just the government, it's not just corporation, it's basically everyone. Students loans, car loans, mfers taking out micro loans to pay for doordash....
Technically, we are always in some form of rolling recession. There's always some sectors/regions that are shrinking. But the idea is that over the past few years, we clearly didn't have a general boom. It was more of a malaise.
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