Here's the chart for 15-year and 30-year fixed rate mortgages:
Bear in mind that in 2020/21, you could get a fixed rate mortgage for under 3%. If you are buying with a mortgage, current rates more than double your monthly payment. You'd have to be a fool to sign up.
This is affecting sales of new builds (only cash buyers can afford them), and is depressing re-sales of existing homes (why move if you are on a 3% fixed rate?)
Remortgages are also down for the same reason.
So construction is in recession, suppliers of construction materials are in recession, real estate agents are in recession, and banks are seeing reduced mortgage and re-mortgage activity.
But still the talking heads in the media and the economic experts they feature claim that there will be no recession (the so-called "no-landing" scenario).
But you can't reduce inflation this high without inducing a recession. The lesson from the 70's and 80's is that the purpose of interest rate rises is to reduce economic activity. The only question is whether the recession will be mild or severe.
