Nvidia & GUnit...I Mean GEForce

Nvidia is up 33% this year. Wells Fargo's Aaron Rakers upgraded Nvidia to Outperform from Underperform yesterday, and doubled his price target, to $315 from $140. This upgrade was announced before Nvidia announces their second-quarter earnings report after the market bell. Rakers thinks Nvidia will have a good report, but he’s bullish long term thesis due to the market share in gaming and opportunities in the data center market, artificial intelligence and autonomous vehicles.

I don’t disagree with Rakers long term view, even wrote about Nvidia a week ago.

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The question at hand is will Nvidia sell off or gap up after the earnings report. I honestly have no idea. @ scaredycatguide and I talked about it on the Money Show this past week.

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The other chip makers have reported non-stellar quarterly earnings and have sold off a bit. So he’s a bit bearish on the call and may play it to the downside. I added the fact that on the weekly chart, Nvidia was making higher high, but RSI was starting to trend down, meaning momentum is slowing down.

I’m taking it step further, the iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) and VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) have outperformed the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) in the past 12 months, but in recent weeks, the SOXX and SMH has been break down faster than the XLK

Source

The break down in the semis supports @scaredycatguide bearish short term thesis. This is a tough call, nowadays, I’m a pretty conservative trader and I personally need confirmation that price is heading down and Nvidia hasn’t broken any major demand zones.

Also, placing trades around earnings can be risky if you don’t know what you are doing, which is why if @scaredycatguide places a trade before earnings, he may put on an option spread which will cut down/limit his risks in the trade. Nevertheless, @scaredycatguide might be on to something…just look at what Facebook and Netflix did after they announcing their quarterly earnings.

What do you think, is Nvidia going to sell off or gap higher after the closing bell?

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn't financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

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by rollandthomas

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